Season Preview – 19. Washington Capitals

The Washington Capitals head into the 2024-25 season with a mix of optimism and uncertainty. While they made significant changes this offseason—trading for Jakob Chychrun, Andrew Mangiapane, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Logan Thompson, and signing Matt Roy in free agency—they are still projected to finish 19th in the league, narrowly missing the playoffs. Despite these moves, the team will face tough competition in a stacked Eastern Conference. The spotlight will shine on Alex Ovechkin, who sits just 42 goals shy of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record. However, despite this milestone chase, the Caps may still fall short due to issues with forward depth and overall team consistency.

Season Expectations

Coming off a disappointing early exit from last year playoffs, the Capitals are eager to prove they can still compete in the tough Eastern Conference. General Manager Chris Patrick wasn’t shy about making bold moves, acquiring several key players, including defenseman Jakob Chychrun, goaltender Logan Thompson, and forwards Andrew Mangiapane and Pierre-Luc Dubois. These additions should improve both the defense, goaltending, and offense, addressing some major weaknesses from last season.

The Capitals defense looks much stronger than last year, which should help address the team’s -37 goal differential from last season. With veteran leaders like Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, and John Carlson, along with new additions who bring a mix of skill and grit, the Capitals could surprise some teams this season. However, the Caps lack of depth beyond their top two froward lines and overwhelming inconsistencies from last year suggests they may still fall short of making the playoffs.

Projected Lines

The Capitals lineup this season will need to find balance between their veteran core and emerging young talent to achieve success. Forwards will need to provide consistent scoring across top-nine lines, as relying too heavily on top players could lead to offensive struggles. Defensively, improved structure and cohesion will be key to keeping games close in a highly competitive Eastern Conference. Achieving harmony between offense, defense, and goaltending will be the determining factor in the Capitals pursuit of a playoff spot.

To clarify, these line projections are meant to only predict the start of the season. With so many potential combinations possible, its almost certain that there are tweaks and additions of new faces by the end of the year. Expect the season to start as such:

Alex Ovechkin – Dylan Strome – Tom Wilson
Connor McMichael – Pierre-Luc Dubois – Andrew Mangiapane
Ivan Miroshnichenko – Hendrix Lapierre – Aliaksei Protas
Sonny Milano – Nic Dowd – Brandon Duhaime

Jakob Chychrun – John Carlson
Rasmus Sandin – Matt Roy
Martin Fehervary – Trevor van Riemsdyk

Charlie Lindgren
Logan Thompson

Scratches: Taylor Raddysh, Ethan Bear

Line 1
With Ovechkin on the pursuit for 42 goals this year, it would be wise for head coach Spencer Carbery to stick with what worked last year. This line played 47 games together for a total of 297.6 minutes while producing a 55.1% xGoals % and a net 0.59 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which ranked 2nd on the Capitals last year. Ovechkin will no doubt be shooting at every opportunity he gets, and with his conditioning and speed at an all time low, he will need his linemates to do most of the work. Strome has proved the last two seasons he is capable of being a consistent top-six centerman, putting up 132 points in 163 games. Wilson on the other hand, will be slotted to do most of the grunt work, which is his forte. He will win battles along the wall, have a relentless forecheck, and be a net front presence to assist Ovechkin in his pursuit.

Line 2
This is an extremely effective 2nd line on paper. While both Dubois and Mangiapane are new comers to the Capitals, there is no analytical evidence to show any chemistry between these three players, yet we can assume this line at least starts together this year. McMichael is a bright spot for the Capitals young players, already showing his effectiveness and ability to contribute, but will need to take a big step forward if he is to earn a steady role in the top-six. Mangiapane brings a necessary speed to a slower forward group, he also possesses the ability to be a secondary scorer on the regular. This line will need to be able to carry the load as often as possible, especially if they will be seeing opposing teams lighter matchups.

Line 3
This may be a hot-take, but Miroshnichenko should make this team. With the lack of scoring options across the lines, it would make sense to inject the youth and offensive touch of a talented winger like Miroshnichenko. While he was limited to only 21 games last year, his stat line of 2 goals and 6 points, does not do his effectiveness justice. Lapierre is also another young talented forward that will need to step up his game to fulfill the necessary duties of a third line center in the league. After seeing his first season in the NHL, he showed glimpses of promise and was able to pot 22 points in 51 games. Protas is a beast of a player, standing 6’6″ and weighing 225lbs, he is the epitome of a power forward. He will need to settle this young line down with his 169 games of NHL experience, yet it may be a big ask for someone who is only just 23 years old.

Line 4
The most important role of a fourth line is to provide energy and not let in goals against. This line here can do just that, while possibly contributing offensively from time to time. Milano is a bottom-six forward who can have an offensive touch, but has lacked any consistency to be a stalwart higher in the lines. Dowd is a veteran shut-down centerman who provides a stability and reliance for the Capitals coaching staff. Duhaime is a new addition that has been known for his pest style of play, grinding players down, and being a valuable tool for a forecheck. This line may not be the flashiest, but they will do what is asked for a fourth line persistently.

Pair 1
Bringing in Chychrun could be one of the more underrated moves of the offseason. His ability to shutdown top players, while also having the hockey sense to provide offensively, should be a catalyst for the Capitals this year. Chychrun’s time in Ottawa may not have lived up to expectations and ended quickly as it began, but look for him to have success playing with a partner of Carlson’s calibre. Carlson is entering his twilight years as a dynamic defenseman in the league, but he still has a lot to give and can be a force on the ice. Matching him with Chychrun seems like a match made in heaven, at least on paper. They will be tasked with major minutes, and should provide an offensive or defensive boost when tasked to do so.

Pair 2
This is an interesting pair that could be the difference from the Capitals making or missing the playoffs. Sandin did not have the best of seasons last year, and admitted it himself, yet he has the skill set to be able to control the pace of play and join a rush when he is at his best. Roy was a surprised signing for the Capitals, as many people projected him to sigh elsewhere. However, Roy also has been able to carve himself into a reliable two-way top-four defenseman that will be able to assist Sandin in furthering his development. If this pairing is successful together, it could settle down many defensive inconsistencies that Captials had last year, while also providing relief for a possibly strained top pairing of Chychrun and Carlson.

Pair 3
The Capitals finally have a good problem, defensive depth. Fehervary is a typical defensive-defenseman who can be an expert penalty killer and shutdown force when games are tight. We may even see him move up and down the pairings as matchups change and certain aspects of a game are in play. Pairing him with van Riemsdyk makes sense due to their somehwat familiarity with being a pairing. Last year, they played 51 games together for a total of 164. 8 minutes, while posting a 49.3% xGoals % and a net -0.08 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. Compared to the pairing of Fehervary and Bear, who played a limited 40.7 minutes together and producing an abysmal 33% xGoals % and a net -1.47 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. Having van Riemsdyk as Fehervary’s partner could be a solid option as a shutdown pair for the Capitals this season.

Goalies
Last year was a breakout season for Lindgren, who took over as the Capitals starting goaltender and was one of the main reasons the team was able to sneak into the playoffs. Lindgren posted a 10.5 Goals Saved Above Expected, las season, which ranked him 16th overall in the entire league last year out of any goaltender who played. That alone is impressive for a team that finished with a -37 goal differential. Thompson comes in as a type 1B tandem, yet could be expected to be a 50/50 split duties when all said is done. Thompson was able to produce a 4.6 Goals Saved Above Expected, which ranked him 26th overall in the league last year. However, that number was produced with a different team and structure in front of him, so time will tell how effective Thompson will be with the Capitals.

Scratches
Raddysh is a solid power forward option that may or may not crack the opening lineup, depending on Miroshnichenko or Jakub Vrana’s (professional try-out) camp results. He has the knack to play along the boards and drive the net, and could be a good option for when a change is needed in the lines. Bear was offered multiple contracts last year, but chose the Capitals because they gave him a two-year term and an opportunity to play every night. That looks to change this year unfortunately for Bear, who was subsequently replaced in a role by new comer Roy, and veteran van Riemsdyk. Bear will no doubt see playing time this year, it just will not be aligned with expectations he had before signing with Washington.

Keys to Success

For the Capitals to exceed expectations and challenge for a playoff spot, several factors need to fall into place. Alex Ovechkin’s quest to break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal-scoring record could serve as a major source of inspiration for the team. If Ovechkin can continue his scoring pace and push toward the 42-goal mark, the excitement and momentum could energize the entire roster and push them to perform at a higher level.

Defensive stability will also be crucial. With the additions of Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy, the Capitals blue line is significantly improved from last season. This should help reduce the team’s goals against, especially given their disappointing -37 goal differential last year. If the defense can solidify early on and provide structure, Washington will have a stronger foundation to build from.

The offensive contributions of new forwards like Pierre-Luc Dubois and Andrew Mangiapane will also be key. Dubois offers Washington a strong presence down the middle, while Mangiapane brings much-needed secondary scoring. If these two can quickly develop chemistry with the rest of the lineup and alleviate some of the scoring pressure on Ovechkin, it will make Washington a much more balanced and dangerous team.

Goaltending will be another major factor in Washington’s success. Logan Thompson, acquired from Vegas, has the potential to be a stabilizing force in net. If Thompson can find consistency along with Lindgren, and provide reliable performances, it will give the Capitals the confidence they need to stay competitive in tight games. Solid goaltending will be especially important in the Eastern Conference, where margins between teams are razor-thin.

Potential Downfall

The Capitals face several challenges that could prevent them from achieving their postseason dreams. One of the most pressing issues is their lack of forward depth. While the top six, now bolstered by Pierre-Luc Dubois and Andrew Mangiapane, looks solid on paper, the team’s bottom six forwards remain a concern. Without consistent secondary scoring, the burden will fall on Ovechkin, Strome, and other top players to carry the offense, which could become unsustainable over the course of a long season.

Additionally, the level of competition in the Eastern Conference is a significant obstacle. The East is stacked with powerhouse teams like Florida, Boston, Carolina, New Jersey, Tampa Bay, and Toronto, all of whom possess more depth and firepower than Washington. Even with the Capitals offseason improvements, they may struggle to keep pace with the elite teams in the conference.

Another concern is the age and durability of the Capitals veteran core. Ovechkin and Carlson are all key pieces, but they’re also on the decline physically, with the risk of injuries becoming more frequent. If any of these key players miss significant time, Washington could find themselves in trouble quickly. Even if they stay healthy, the speed and energy of the younger teams in the league may prove difficult to keep up with.

Finally, the goaltending situation, while bolstered by the acquisition of Logan Thompson, remains uncertain. Both Thompson and Lindgren have shown promise, but both are still relatively unproven as a starter over a full season. If they struggle or deal with injuries, the Capitals might not have the depth in net to overcome that, making it difficult to compete night in and night out.

Future Outlook

Looking beyond this season, the Capitals find themselves at a pivotal moment as they balance veteran leadership with emerging talent. While Alex Ovechkin’s chase of Wayne Gretzky’s goal record will dominate the headlines, Washington’s future hinges on the development of its younger players. This season, Connor McMichael, Hendrix Lapierre, and Rasmus Sandin are poised to play significant roles in the team’s success. McMichael and Lapierre will look to solidify themselves as offensive contributors, bringing speed and skill to a team that needs an infusion of youth up front. Sandin, is a promising two-way defender that lost a step in his development last year, will be expected to take another step forward, especially with the improved defense around him.

The Capitals prospect pool also offers a promising glimpse of what lies ahead. Top prospects like Ryan Leonard and Terik Parascak bring offensive firepower that could eventually bolster the team’s depth. Ivan Miroshnichenko and Andrew Cristall add further excitement with their high-end skill and potential to make an impact in the near future. On defense, Cole Hutson and Ryan Chesley represent the next wave of talent that could stabilize Washington’s blue line for years to come.

As the Capitals aim to remain competitive while transitioning toward a younger core, the contributions from these rising players will be crucial. The organization’s ability to develop and integrate these prospects will help determine whether they can extend their window of contention while being able to cycle in the younger players. For now, Washington appears to be walking the line between short-term competitiveness and long-term planning, with a promising future on the horizon if their young talent reaches its potential.

Final Thoughts

The Washington Capitals made significant changes this offseason, which may help them stay competitive in the short term, but they still face several hurdles in a stacked Eastern Conference. While they’ve addressed some areas of need, their forward depth, age, and consistency remain concerns. Ovechkin’s pursuit of the all-time goals record will be the most exciting story of the season, but on paper, the Capitals appear destined to just miss the playoffs. However, if their key players perform and some of the newer pieces click, Washington could exceed expectations and make a run at a wildcard spot. Nonetheless, this season feels more like a bridge year, with bigger questions looming about the future direction of the franchise.