Season Preview – 9. Colorado Avalanche

After a disappointing playoffs last season, the Colorado Avalanche are primed to return to playoff form, projected to finish ninth in the league and make another strong postseason push. With the potential return of captain Gabriel Landeskog and the reinstatement of Valeri Nichushkin, the team is looking to regain its status as a contender. However, questions surrounding goaltending and depth remain as they navigate a competitive Western Conference. The Avalanche are once again led by superstar talents Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, but they’ll need contributions from younger players and stability between the pipes to stay on track.

Season Expectations

Heading into the 2024-25 season, expectations for the Avalanche are high, but not without caution. The return of Landeskog remains a possibility, though it’s uncertain when the captain will be back after missing all of the last two seasons while recovering from knee surgery. His leadership and presence would provide a significant boost to the team, but the Avalanche must once again be prepared to push forward without him for a large portion of the season.

Despite the setbacks, Colorado is still projected to finish in a strong position, making the playoffs in a competitive Central Division. The core remains intact with MacKinnon, Makar, and Mikko Rantanen, ensuring that the Avalanche will have the firepower to compete at an elite level. MacKinnon’s relentless drive and Makar’s game-changing ability on the back end give Colorado an edge that few teams can match. Expectations will also focus on how quickly Nichushkin can reintegrate after his lengthy absence and suspension, likely returning around mid-November.

While the Avalanche have the star talent to make noise in the playoffs, their season could be defined by how well they address their weak points, particularly in goaltending and forward depth.

Projected Lines

The Avalanche’s lineup will feature elite offensive talent in the top six, with a focus on speed and scoring. Depth will be key, as more unexperienced players step into bottom-six roles to provide energy and defensive support. On defense, the team will rely on a strong top pair for stability, while secondary pairings contribute to the transition game. Goaltending remains a question mark, with consistency in net crucial to the team’s success.

To clarify, these line projections are meant to only predict the start of the season. With so many potential combinations possible, its almost certain that there are tweaks and additions of new faces by the end of the year. Expect the season to start as such:

Jonathan Drouin – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen
Artturi Lehkonen – Casey Mittelstadt – Nikolai Kovalenko
Miles Wood – Ross Colton – Logan O’Connor
Joel Kiviranta – Ivan Ivan – Parker Kelly

Devon Toews – Cale Makar
Samuel Girard – Josh Manson
Oliver Kylington – Calvin de Haan

Alexandar Georgiev
Justus Annunen

Scratches: Sam Malinski, John Ludvig, Kaapo Kahkonen

Line 1
This was the most utilized forward line for the Avalanche last season. They were together for 62 games for a total of 485.4 minutes, and managed to produce an impressive 57.3% xGoals For % along with a net 0.90 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. Drouin came to the Avalanche last year via free agency and reunited with his JRs line mate MacKinnon. Drouin ended up having a career year with 56 points including 37 assists. It earned him another one-year deal with a raise from $0.825 million to $2.5 million cap hit. Drouin will try to keep the momentum and chemistry he has found in Colorado, and if he can return healthy he can be a difference maker. MacKinnon tore up the league last year posting career highs across the board with 51 goals, 89 assists for 140 points. He ended up winning the Hart Memorial Trophy & Ted Lindsay Award deservedly so. While it may be difficult to replicate such an outstanding season, MacKinnon has found another gear and will most likely return to the elite production again this season. Rantanen is the perfect counterpart to MacKinnon on the top line. His size, finishing ability, and pure strengths can overwhelm opposition matchups. In the last three season, he has been able to score 133 goals in just 237 games, establishing himself as an elite sniper in the league. The Avalanche will need to rely heavily on this line if they are to make any waves in the playoffs this year.

Line 2
A solid second line in the midst of waiting for Nichushkin to return from his suspension. While we don’t have any analytical evidence from last regular season to understand how effective this line may be, we can at least speculate based on each individual and how they contribute given secondary minutes. Lehkonen is a premier two-way forward in the league and has found a home in Colorado, posting 94 points in 125 regular season games in his Avalanche tenure. He has dealt with injuries the last two seasons, and even starts this season out of the lineup, yet when he does play he is extremely effective on both ends of the ice and adds a reliable element of secondary scoring the Avalanche need to be a serious team. Mittelstadt came over to Colorado at last years trade deadline in exchange for defenseman Bowen Byram and looked to fit perfectly as the second line center. He managed to put up 10 points in 18 games before contributing 9 points in 11 playoff games. While he is still transitioning to a different system in Colorado, we can assume he will only get better as the season progresses, which adds another layer to this top heavy Avalanche forward core. Kovalenko was drafted by the Avalanche back in 2018 but made himself a career in the KHL before finally signing with Colorado at the end of last year. Now at 25 years old, Kovalenko can bring a speed element and offensive IQ that made him a formidable threat in Russia. Yet, he has yet to produce any points at the NHL level and will need time adjusting to the system and rigors of an NHL season.

Line 3
This line found success last year as the third option and shutdown line while still finding some offense in their tight game. They were together 42 games for a total of 282.1 minutes in total, which was third in minutes for all of Colorado’s forward lines. They managed to put up a solid 56.2% xGoals For % along with a 0.83 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which was only 0.07 off of the top line. Wood brings a ton of speed to this line up, and has a natural intuition to drive the net. He may not have the best finishing abilities on the team, but he can generate offense for his line through a heavy cycle or creating a fast rush through the neutral zone after breaking up plays. Colton set a career high with 40 points last season, which was his first campaign in the Avalanche uniform. He is able to move up and down the lineup to contribute offensively, and is a stalwart for a penalty kill that lacks many reliable options. He will just have to keep true to his grinding two-way game and he will find success as the season progresses. Right before the season began, O’Connor was locked down by the Avalanche with a six-year, $15.0 million extension that carries an average annual value of $2.5 million that kicks in next season. Management rewarded O’Connor and committed to him based on the two-way value he brings to the middle-six. He has never been a point producer, but the Avalanche just need him to use his body and speed the way he already has.

Line 4
It seems as though Colorado is committed to a competitive approach to their fourth line, where they will likely cycle through multiple players until they find a fit they are comfortable with when the post-season arrives. As of right now, they have Kiviranta back on the fourth line where he played most of his 56 games last season and proved to be somewhat effective with 9 points in those games. Most importantly, he was not a defensive liability and could provide some energy when called to do so. We will likely see him maintain his spot unless an upgrade is made during the season. Ivan is the first player in the NHL to have the same first name and last name, which is extremely believable. However, he is only 22 years old and has just 67 games of professional hockey under his belt before making the roster out of training camp. There is a lot to like about his two-way style, but he is unproven at the NHL level and the Avalanche must be hoping he can provide a solid option for a thin fourth line. Kelly has been a fringe NHL player his whole career, finally having a full season at the NHL last year with Ottawa. His strong penalty kill abilities and effectiveness as a bottom-six player earned him a two-year deal with Colorado this offseason. We will likely see him take over as the fourth line center when Nichushkin returns and Kovalenko likely moves down onto the right side of this line. Time will tell how effective this line can be, first they must earn the trust of the coaching staff to earn a permanent spot.

Pair 1
This could be the best top pairing in the entire league the way they both work off one another. Last season, unsurprisingly, this was the Avalanche’s most utilized pairing as they played 77 games together for a total of 1035 minutes of ice time. They managed to post a 55.1% xGoals For % along with a net 0.52 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which doesn’t do this pairing justice for the impact they have on every single game. Makar could be the best defenseman to ever play the game, at least thats what his career trajectory is headed for. He is the heartbeat of this Avalanche team, being able to take control of a game himself and turn the tide in Colorado’s favour whenever he gets an opportunity to. He generates rushes out of thin air, has an elite shot from the point or on the rush, and can shut down even the most skilled players with his defensive acumen. As fans we are very lucky to get the chance to watch Makar night in and night out as he continues to develop his own play and evolve the entire game. If Makar is peanut butter, then Toews is jam because they were meant for each other. Toews has a reliable two-way steady presence every time he steps on the ice. Not only that, but he has the awareness to either join a rush or stay back when Makar does his magic. Having this acute awareness is essential to play with someone with the elite skills and mind that Makar possesses, and Toews can carry his own next to him without being dragged along.

Pair 2
A solid second pairing that has both a touch of offense and defensive approach. Last season they were together for 54 games and accumulated 463.8 minutes while posting a trustworthy 55% xGoals For % along with a net 0.51 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which was just as effective as the elite top pair. Girard is a smaller offensive defenseman that understands how to use his smaller stature to his advantage. He is an extremely savvy skater and has an underrated vision that can create offense out of the smallest opportunities. He can quarterback the second power play unit, and also create a high pressured offensive zone possession when he manages the blue line. He is complimented by the defensive-first physicality of Manson. Even though Manson has lost a step or two in the last few seasons, he still understands how to be most effective and that is by blocking shots and taking the body to separate a player from the puck. He can create energy with timely hits or stick up for his teammates when the time comes, all while providing secondary leadership on an already high character team.

Pair 3
Just like the fourth line for the forwards, the third defensive pairing will likely see a cycle through until there is a trust build with a certain matchup. Both players currently slotted into the role are newcomers to the team that have found success at the NHL level for many years. Kylington took a leave of absence last season in Calgary to work on his mental health and there is a lot to like about his game that could benefit the Avalanche. He is usually a offensive-first type, yet in order to become a consistent contributor in the bottom of the pairings, he will need to adapt a steadier two-way presence. He has all the tools to do just that, combining an elite skating ability, high IQ, and determination. On the other side of Kylington we have de Haan who is a veteran of 635 regular season games. While he has only played one full season in his no 13 year career, he can bring a calmness and understanding that he might not play every game. Nonetheless, when he does play he can provide the third pairing with a steady defensive-first approach without being a liability or game changer, just being a very consistent steady defenseman.

Goalies
This is where it seems the Avalanche have the most worries, and rightly so. Georgiev is more of a 1B starter throughout his entire career, and while he has been given the reigns as the defacto number 1 in Colorado, he has shown that he is unable to maintain consistency. His first season in Colorado was spectacular, he played 62 games and posted 40 wins with a 2.53 goals against average and remarkable 0.919% save percentage. Yet that success seemed to disappear as soon as last season began, where he still played 63 games and had 38 wins, but posted a 3.02 goals against average and 0.897% save percentage. Luckily the Avalanche were able to outscore most of their problems, but is an unsustainable method for winning especially come playoff time. This season already, Georgiev has been pulled multiple times in just 4 games, and has yet to win while posting a 5.79 goals against average and abysmal 0.800% save percentage. He will need to find the game he had in his first tenure with Colorado, if they are planning to make a deep playoff push and chase another Stanley Cup. Behind Georgiev, there is a promising younger Annunen who has at time shown more poise and ability than the starter. He was able to earn the backup role last season and played just 14 games with an impressive 2.25 goals against average and 0.928% save percentage. He just will need to more experience in an NHL net before the Avalanche can trust him to take a more significant workload.

Scratches
Since there will likely be a revolving door on the bottom pair of the defensive core, Malinski is a good name to bet on for winning a role. Last season he had an immediate impact when called up and ended up posting 3 goals and 10 points in 23 games played. He may be able to earn a consistent spot with the team if he can find that magic again he had for those 23 games last season. Ludwig is another bet to fight for a role in the bottom pair, and has a different tool set in order to be effective. He is more physical and defensive minded than any of the options, so depending on matchups, he will likely get a handful of games as the season progresses. Since there is so much uncertainty around the starters position, the Avalanche recently claimed Kahkonen off waivers from Winnipeg in order to have another option if need be. Don’t expect Kahkonen to take on a major role, unless there are injuries or the coaching staff becomes desperate for a save. We have left Calum Ritchie out of the projections even though he is currently getting games, simply due to the injuries to other forwards which has enabled a trial run for him. It is almost certain that Colorado sends Ritchie back to JRs before he burns a year off his entry-level deal. Let us also mention the speculation around Nichushkin and Landeskog who are both hopeful to return this season and add a much needed offensive catalyst to a depleted forward group. Since there is no certainty around either players, we will leave them off the board instead of penciling them in for players already on the roster.

Keys to Success

The Avalanche’s road to success will hinge on several critical factors. First, MacKinnon and Makar must continue to play at their world-class levels. MacKinnon’s offensive prowess and Makar’s two-way dominance provide the foundation for this team’s competitiveness. If both players stay healthy and maintain their production, the Avalanche will have the dynamic force needed to compete with the league’s best.

Depth will also be key. Colorado’s bottom six has been a point of concern, and for the team to meet its playoff aspirations, younger players like Casey Mittelstast, Nikolai Kovalenko, and others will need to step into more significant roles. If they can find stability and scoring from their secondary forwards, it will alleviate pressure from the top lines.

Goaltending, while shaky in the past, will need to stabilize. Alexandar Georgiev has yet to prove himself as a reliable starter for an entire season. If he can find consistency, the Avalanche’s defensive structure will benefit greatly, especially with Makar, Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard anchoring the blue line. A solid defensive showing, complemented by improved goaltending, could propel this team deep into the playoffs.

Potential Downfall

The Avalanche’s greatest challenge could come from within: their lack of depth and the uncertainty in goal. If Georgiev continues to struggle like he has to start this season, the Avalanche may find themselves in precarious situations where high-scoring games become the norm. Inconsistent goaltending can derail even the most talented teams, and if Georgiev continues to falter, the Avalanche will be forced to rely on Annunen who may not be ready for the starters role.

Additionally, the absence of key players like Landeskog and Nichushkin for a portion of the season creates a significant void in leadership and scoring. While Nichushkin’s eventual return may help, the Avalanche will have to tread water without him in the early months. If younger players or new additions fail to step up, Colorado could struggle to generate offense outside of their top stars. The lack of depth could lead to uneven performances, especially in tighter matchups where secondary scoring is crucial.

Furthermore, while MacKinnon and Makar are superstars, the heavy reliance on them raises concerns. If either player suffers an injury or endures a slump, the Avalanche could quickly find themselves falling short of expectations. Same goes for Rantanen, who will need to remain consistent to provide the scoring catalyst the Avalanche rely on. Also, secondary scorers like Jonathan Drouin and Casey Mittelstadt will have to take steps forward on the score sheet to insulate the lack of scoring depth behind them.

Future Outlook

The future of the Colorado Avalanche looks promising, bolstered by a strong group of top prospects poised to make an impact in the coming years. One name to watch is Calum Ritchie, the highly touted center who has already seen action in a few games early this season. While Ritchie has shown flashes of his potential, the team will likely send him back to juniors for further development, allowing him to refine his game before taking on a full-time role in the NHL next season. As one of the Avalanche’s top prospects, Ritchie is expected to become a key piece of their forward group down the line.

Beyond Ritchie, Colorado has a somewhat deep prospect pool, including forwards like Oskar Olausson, Ivan Ivan, Nikita Prishchepov, and William Zellers. Olausson, in particular, is close to breaking through as a reliable middle-six option, while Ivan and Prishchepov offer intriguing potential as they continue to develop. On defense, Mikhail Gulyayev and Sean Behrens are two blue-line prospects the Avalanche are excited about. Gulyayev, in particular, is seen as a future cornerstone with his elite skating and puck-moving abilities, while Behrens adds depth to their defensive pipeline.

Perhaps the most exciting prospect in the system is goaltender Ilya Nabokov, who is being groomed as the franchise’s future in net. With the Avalanche facing inconsistency in goaltending this season, Nabokov’s development becomes even more critical. While he’s still a few years away from being NHL-ready, his potential as a high-end starter could solve Colorado’s long-term goaltending concerns.

The combination of Ritchie, Gulyayev, and Nabokov gives the Avalanche a bright future, ensuring that even as their current core ages, they will remain competitive with this new wave of talent set to arrive in the coming seasons.

Final Thoughts

The 2024-25 season presents both opportunities and challenges for the Colorado Avalanche. With stars like Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar leading the charge, they have the elite talent to compete at the highest level. However, uncertainties in goaltending and forward depth could threaten to derail their aspirations if not addressed.

As they await the potential return of their captain Gabriel Landeskog and the reinstatement of Valeri Nichushkin, the Avalanche’s ability to navigate the early season hurdles will be crucial. If they can stabilize their goaltending and find contributions from their younger players, Colorado has the chance to make another deep playoff run. But if the cracks in their lineup are exposed, they could find themselves falling short in an increasingly competitive league.