Season Preview – 6. Toronto Maple Leafs

As the Toronto Maple Leafs enter the 2024-25 NHL season, optimism surrounds their push to finally overcome playoff struggles. Projected to finish sixth overall, the team has undergone significant changes to create a new identity under head coach Craig Berube. Known for his north-south, physical style, Berube aims to bring a structured, defensively sound team that balances scoring with grit, forechecking, and discipline. The Maple Leafs revamped their roster to meet this new approach by overhauling their defensive core, adding Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Jani Hakanpää. They have also shifted leadership responsibilities, naming Auston Matthews as captain. With a stable goaltending tandem of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz aiming for long-term consistency, the Maple Leafs look set for a fresh approach and a culture shift that may finally help them make a deep playoff run.

Season Expectations

This season, GM Brad Treliving has worked diligently to craft a team focused on balanced, two-way play, shifting from the high-scoring, offense driven style they played under Sheldon Keefe. Berube’s north-south approach is designed to give Toronto the grit and discipline they have sometimes lacked, prioritizing structure and physicality over flash. The shift in team leadership, marked by Auston Matthews receiving the captaincy from John Tavares, signals a change in mentality. Matthews’ promotion aligns the team’s identity more closely with their star forward, allowing him to set the tone for a group hungry for postseason redemption. Tavares, who remains a crucial player in his own right, is expected to continue guiding the younger players, helping to balance the team’s new direction with veteran composure.

The Leafs revamped defense represents the core of this new approach, with Tanev, Ekman-Larsson, and Hakanpää anchoring a sturdy back end that will complement the physical style Berube covets. By adding defensive minded veterans, Toronto aims to eliminate the defensive lapses that have often plagued them in crucial games. The front office hopes that a combination of shot blocking, physicality, and tight coverage will allow their goaltenders to thrive, marking a shift from previous teams that were more vulnerable to high-scoring affairs.

On the offensive side, while the Leafs may not be scoring at the same high rate as in previous seasons, their philosophy emphasizes a balanced attack with contributions from the entire forward core, rather than relying solely on Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. Depth players like Max Domi, Bobby McMann, and Pacioretty, are expected to provide added scoring punch and energy, while keeping the team motivated and maintaining high levels of competition throughout the season. The Leafs also anticipate that their emphasis on physical play and resilience will make them a difficult opponent in the playoffs, as they attempt to navigate the season with a focus on defensive accountability and postseason success.

Projected Lines

Under Craig Berube’s new system, the Leafs lineup emphasizes a north-south, hard hitting style. Forwards will engage in heavy forechecking and dump-and-chase play to wear down opponents, creating chances from forced turnovers. Defensive pairs are built to balance size and mobility, prioritizing blocking lanes and protecting high danger areas to solidify a structured and playoff ready game.

To clarify, these line projections are meant to only predict the start of the season. With so many potential combinations possible, its almost certain that there are tweaks and additions of new faces by the end of the year. Expect the season to start as such:

Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Max Paciroetty – John Tavares – William Nylander
Bobby McMann – Max Domi – Nick Robertson
Steven Lorentz – David Kampf – Pontus Holmberg

Morgan Rielly – Chris Tanev
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Jake McCabe
Simon Benoit – Connor Timmins

Anthony Stolarz
Joseph Woll

Scratches: Calle Jarnkrok*, Ryan Reaves, Timothy Liljegren, Jani Hakanpää*

Line 1
This line carries a significant responsibility of being the consistent offensive generator. They have already started the season off well, playing a total of 96.6 minutes in 10 games. They have managed to produce an impressive 61.9% xGoals For along with an outstanding net 1.73 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. Knies has been tasked with a dependability to retrieve pucks, crash the net, and maintain possession in the offensive zone. He is already on pace for 40 goals in a full 82 game schedule, and if he can keep this hot start up, then the Leafs will have to look at extending him long-term before his market value rises more. Matthews is coming off an insane 69 goal season and has the new role as the Leafs captain. Expectations are always high for the leagues best goal scorer, but this new found leadership responsibility will either make Matthews exceed new heights or take a slight step back. He is seeing time now on the penalty kill which will see his ice time for 5-on-5 drop, yet his season performances have increasingly developed into one of the leagues top players. Marner is in a contract year and all pressure is on him to fulfill the expectations of stepping up in crucial moments. While Marner has already stated that he has never envisioned himself in another uniform other than Toronto, it will be a hard fought negotiation that both sides will want to come out on top of. It will be up to Marner to block out the noise surrounding his future and still put up premier performances on the ice, especially when playoffs begin.

Line 2
The Leafs are still trying to figure out the balance of scoring that the second line is capable of, and we have already see multiple combinations that have worked. This combination seems to be the best so far, and while it may not be long-term, the Leafs should run with it until it needs a change. They have managed to post an unbelievable 88.2% xGoals For % along with an unheard of net 6.02 xGoals For per 60 Minutes. The caveat is that this line has only been together for one game, signifying the inflated numbers. Nevertheless, if we look at each individual skill set we can attribute the success to the chemistry on paper. Pacioretty is a excellent veteran presence on this team and earned his way to a one-year contract after a successful professional try-out with the team in camp. He has dealt with multiple achilles injuries the past few seasons and finally had an offseason to dedicate to work outs and earning his place back in the NHL. As long as the coaching staff can mitigate expectations and give him a balanced work load, he should be able to contribute his goal scoring touch as the season progresses. Tavares is a consummate professional who understood that a leadership change was needed this offseason, and graciously handed his captaincy to Matthews. Now without the spotlight as the leader in Toronto, Tavares can focus solely on his play and what he can bring to the team to stay effective. He has lost foot speed the last few seasons, but his board battles and presence in the locker room is invaluable to the teams success. Nylander could be one of most well rounded wingers in the league. He possesses a lethal shot, can control the pace of play every time he steps on the ice, and is known for his poise to step up when it matters.

Line 3
This line has yet to see any significant actions this season due to the rotation that the bottom six has currently been experiencing. However, we can speculate their effectiveness due to Berube’s system being implemented and the style of play each individual offers. McMann starter the season as a healthy scratch, suggesting Berube was looking more from the power forward. He answered the challenge and has now solidified himself as a middle-six option for a team that is desperate need of consistent secondary scoring. He understands how to use his big body, forecheck to create a cycle, and maintain or gain possession in a board battle. He will need to find a reliable consistency to become a key contributor as the season ages. Domi is the wild card of this offense. He can play anywhere he is needed and has the tenacity and energy that fits perfectly for a more reserved forward group. He has an elite playmaking vision and speed that can be used down the middle or on the wings when games are close. Robertson created some drama this offseason by requesting a trade out of Toronto before he ended up signing a one-year deal prior to camp. This is a defining moment in his career as he has the spotlight to showcase his abilities to other teams and highlight his lethal shot. However, he has begun this season slow on the score sheet even though he has unlocked a compete level that has been lacking in past seasons.

Line 4
One of the better stories that came out of Toronto’s camp this preseason was Lorentz earning a spot on the bottom-six. They have yet to play any significant time together this season as well, due to rotation that the coaching staff has implemented. However, they are all sound defensive players and bring an identity to a fourth line that has been lacking in recent years. Lorentz is a high energy player that is a coaches dream for a bottom-six. His work ethic is off the charts and he brings a sense of optimism that can drown out the noise in a high-pressured market. Kampf has seen his ice time decreased already due to Matthews seeing penalty kill time, yet he still provides some value as a shutdown center that will never truly be relied on the provide offense. As long as he can play up to his defensive specialty then he will find a spot in this lineup. Holmberg is still trying to find his role on the team and brings a multi facet skill set that has been extremely inconsistent in his young NHL career. Nevertheless, his skating ability and offensive mindset can be utilized in a sheltered role and hopeful develops to round out his game.

Pair 1
The most significant transaction that the Leafs made this offseason was acquiring Tanev and ultimately signing him to a six-year deal to avoid free agency. There has always been a need in Toronto to find a suitable partner for stalwart Rielly as he has never been blessed with a long-term partner for his career. Now that problem has been addressed and hopefully solved. Already this paring has seen the most ice time together out of all of the Leafs defensive pairs, and seem to be effective. Through 10 games this season, they have managed to post a 55.7% xGoals For % along with a net 0.58 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, facing the toughest matchups from opponents. Rielly is a steady two-way defender who has always been given too much responsibilities which end up hurting his overall game. He is extremely talented on both ends of the ice, and now having a defensive-first partner, Rielly can take more risks with less ice time, and find a new level to his game. Tanev is one of the best, if not the best, defensive defensemen in the league. He plays a hard-nosed, gritty, and committed style that can put him in all situations. He will be a major factor for the penalty kill and when it comes to being in his own zone, he will block every puck he possibly can. The Leafs are relying on their medical staff to keep Tanev healthy as he is known to miss games due to his hard style of play.

Pair 2
The Leafs set out this offseason to revamp their blue line and find a balance that will fit under their new coaches defensive system. GM Treliving brought in Ekman-Larsson who he watched grow into a top-four defender from his time in Arizona. It was a wise decision that is paying off already, and while the contract itself might look poor for the Leafs in two or three year, he will only have to live up for it in this short competitive window the currently are in. So far this pairing has been together for 10 games while managing to post a 54.7% xGoals For % along with a net 0.54 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which highlights the balance between this pair and the first pair. Ekman-Larsson is fresh off a Stanley Cup from last year in Florida, and has already shown he has brought his tenacious mindset with him. He also brings a heavy shot from the point that can be used on the power play, and has an elite vision for creating rushes or cross seam passes. McCabe has been a reliable top-four option for the Leafs since being acquired from Chicago a few seasons ago. He brought with him a culture shift and a ‘no prisoners allowed’ mentality that has seeped through the entire roster. He was recently awarded a five-year contract extension that illustrates managements trust in his overall game.

Pair 3
There has been a philosophy of rotation on this bottom pairing so far, with Benoit being the sole benefactor of staying in the lineup. The reason we have Timmins slotted in the pairings is due to his playing time to start this season, yet it is likely he becomes the Leafs seventh defender once Hakanpää returns from injury. So far this year, they have played 8 games together and have managed to post a solid 52.2% xGoals For % along with a net 0.17 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which explains Berube’s utilization of the tandem. Benoit broke out for the Leafs last season and found himself playing in a top-four role and finding consistency as a shutdown option. He will need to carry his momentum from last year to play the same type of role with less minutes. He also adds an element of physicality that the Leafs backend has always been lacking, so his contributions are valuable on the third pair. Timmins posses a great shot from the point, which is likely why he has earned a spot in the new system that has been established. By generating accurate shots from the point, the forwards can crash the net and wear down teams with heavy scrums. He will need to find another gear when it comes to defensive reliability, but for now, he has been effective in the games he has played.

Goalies
The Leafs have been long over due with having a trustworthy goaltender that can carry them through a long regular season and a deep playoff run. GM Brad Treliving elected to go with another tandem this year, but this time is looks different. Both goaltenders are still unproven at the NHL level as a 1A option, so in order to find the option that they can lean on, there will be a battle throughout the season. As of right now, Stolarz has been outstanding and has started the conversation to take over the number one role if he can maintain this level of play. He has already posted a 2.8 Goals Saved Above Expected in just 7 games played, which ranks him 10th in the league with a minimum of 5 games. Woll has only played 1 game this year after dealing with an injury, and looked solid in his first game back, but will need to find another gear if he is to earn the starters role over Stolarz. Yet having both options in a competition for the top role adds an element the Leafs can find a winning formula with.

Scratches
There are a lot of scratches listed for the Leafs to start the season, and while solutions will be found via trade or waivers, right now Toronto is sitting back utilizing IR. This amount of depth across all skaters adds to the competitive culture that both management and the coaching staff is attempting to instill. No ones job is granted and everyone has to earn their ice time. Jarnkrok will likely see time in the middle-six once he makes his return from injury, and can provide a steady two-way play to catalyze both offensive and defensive play. Reaves has looked good already in the games he has played, and it would not be a surprise to see him earn the favour of the coaching staff over Holmberg. Liljegren has already fallen out of favour with Berube, as his puck moving abilities do not compliment the structure of the north-south style the defense is committed too. Speculation surrounds his future and we will likely see him moved before the deadline in favour of cap space or an upgrade. Hakanpää was brought in to be a penalty kill specialist and will likely displace Timmins once he returns from his injury as well. Yet his timetable to return is inconclusive so we are unable to project when he can start having an impact on the ice.

Keys to Success

For the Maple Leafs to finally have a long playoff run, they must adapt seamlessly to Craig Berube’s system and cultivate the right mindset to thrive in a physical, disciplined style of play. One of the critical factors will be the Leafs ability to control puck possession through strong forechecking and limiting high-risk plays. Berube’s system is designed to maximize efficiency in both ends of the rink, placing a premium on defensive integrity and team discipline. Players will need to commit to responsible play, eliminating costly turnovers and ensuring they capitalize on offensive opportunities when they arise.

The team’s defensive additions will also play a major role in setting the tone for the season. Veterans like Tanev and Ekman-Larsson bring the experience, composure, and hard-nosed play that Toronto’s defense has often lacked in recent years. Tanev’s shot-blocking ability and Hakanpää’s physical presence on the blue line are expected to make a substantial difference in their defensive performance, helping prevent the breakdowns that have plagued the Leafs in high-pressure moments.

Goaltending stability is another essential component of Toronto’s aspirations this season. Joseph Woll, who recently signed a three-year extension, has shown flashes of brilliance and is projected to become the Leafs long-term starter. Stolarz, brought in through free agency, provides a reliable option to share the workload and has already earned the role as the number one starter with his recent play. Toronto’s past playoff exits have often come down to inconsistent goaltending performances, so maintaining a strong tandem and reducing Woll’s workload through Stolarz’s reliable play will be crucial. Both goaltenders will need to stay sharp and in sync with the team’s defensive system to provide the level of confidence needed to carry them through the season and into the postseason.

Matthews who is now captain, must embrace the added responsibility and establish himself as a resilient and determined leader. His role will extend beyond scoring because his leadership presence will need to guide every player and support the demanding style Berube will instill. The Leafs are banking on their top players like Matthews, Marner, and Nylander to continue to produce but also showing more commitment to the defensive side of the game. If they can combine their offensive skill with defensive reliability, it will have a ripple effect across the lineup, driving consistency and accountability in a way that’s been missing in recent years.

Potential Downfall

The Leafs path to success is by no means guaranteed. One of the significant challenges they face is the adjustment period to Berube’s system. While his style is proven and has led to playoff success, Toronto’s roster will need to adapt quickly to the demands of a physical, structured game, which may clash with some players instincts and habits developed under Keefe’s more open offensive approach. If key players struggle to adjust, the Leafs could find themselves out of sync throughout the season, potentially sacrificing points in the standings.

Injuries are another lurking concern, particularly within Toronto’s new-look defense. Tanev, Ekman-Larsson, and Hakanpää have all battled injuries in recent seasons, and while they bring invaluable experience, their durability could prove to be weakness if they miss significant time. A thin blueline could disrupt the defensive stability Toronto is trying to achieve, forcing depth players into bigger roles than intended and weakening the Leafs defensive core. Without a healthy defensive lineup, the team could revert to the costly defensive lapses that have hurt them in previous playoff runs.

While leadership changes are aimed at revitalizing the team, they may bring challenges if tensions arise or players struggle to align under Matthews’ new captaincy. While Tavares has accepted his new role gracefully, shifting the leadership dynamic so drastically might take time to settle, particularly for a team navigating significant changes in playing style and structure. Matthews may also face the pressure of added responsibility, which could impact his performance if not handled carefully.

Lastly, offensive depth remains a question mark. Pacioretty and Lorentz were brought in to address the team’s forward depth issues, but there will need to be a rotation of contribution from all secondary forwards for the Leafs to avoid over reliance on their top stars. If depth scoring remains inconsistent, Toronto’s offense may stagnate, particularly in tighter games where defensive focus is high. This potential lack of scoring depth could lead to an overburdened top line, especially in the playoffs, where teams will be ready to target Matthews and Marner like we have seen in the past.

Future Outlook

Looking beyond this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have an intriguing future shaped by a promising crop of prospects who could bolster the team in the coming years. At the forefront is Easton Cowan, a highly touted forward with the tenacity and scoring touch to make a serious impact on the NHL roster as soon as next season. Cowan’s development has been exciting for Leafs fans, and his strong all-around game fits seamlessly with the team’s evolving identity under Craig Berube. He is expected to compete for a role in the lineup next year, bringing another layer of energy and youthful skill.

Fraser Minten, another key prospect, is set to make his debut at the AHL level this year. Minten’s size and two-way ability give him a strong foundation, and his progression in the AHL will be closely watched as he looks to position himself for a future spot on the Leafs roster. If Minten’s adjustment to professional hockey goes well, he could offer Toronto another homegrown solution in the near term, potentially as soon as next season.

Toronto’s depth of talent extends well beyond Cowan and Minten, with several other notable players in the system. Forwards Nikita Grebenkin and Ryan Tverberg have demonstrated offensive potential that aligns with the Leafs need for balanced scoring options. Grebenkin’s speed with physicality and Tverberg’s work ethic give the Leafs additional offensive depth on the horizon. Roni Hirvonen, a versatile center with international experience, adds skill and adaptability to the prospect pool.

On the blue line, Toronto’s prospect system looks solid with Topi Niemela leading the way. Niemela, a highly mobile and intelligent defenseman, could be a vital asset in the coming seasons as the Leafs continue to prioritize defensive strength. Complementing him are Ben Danford, a promising puck-moving defenseman, and Cade Webber who brings size and physicality. Both have the potential to develop into reliable NHL options, fitting well within Berube’s system. Noah Chadwick, another defensive prospect, is still honing his skills but offers long-term potential with his strong positional play and maturity.

In net, Denis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov provide future stability for Toronto’s goaltending situation. Hildeby’s imposing frame and solid positioning make him a standout, while Akhtyamov’s quick reflexes and composure offer a balanced approach in net. These goaltending prospects could become valuable assets as the Leafs aim for continued competitiveness without relying solely on free agent signings.

Final Thoughts

The 2024-25 season marks a defining chapter for the Toronto Maple Leafs, as they aim to overcome playoff struggles and establish themselves as true contenders. With a new head coach, an overhauled defense, a stable goaltending tandem, and a change in leadership, the Leafs have set the stage for a new approach focused on accountability, defensive responsibility, and resilience. Craig Berube’s system promises to reshape the team’s identity, while the leadership transition to Auston Matthews represents a cultural shift that aligns Toronto’s star power with its goals of deep playoff success.

Toronto’s path forward will demand buy-in from every player, from stars to depth forwards, as they look to combine their natural scoring ability with the discipline needed to compete in the playoffs. If they can find harmony between their offensive talent and newfound defensive commitment, the Leafs have a real shot at rewriting their playoff story. For a team with high stakes and an unwavering fan base, this season is an opportunity to redefine the legacy of a group