Season Preview – 25. Buffalo Sabres

The Buffalo Sabres have been stuck in the limbo of the Eastern Conference since the last time they made the playoffs in 2011. The team has seen a carousel of changes from general managers, coaches and star players, so much so that they have brought back head coach Lindy Ruff who was at the helm the last time the Sabres played a playoff game 13 years ago. Sabres fans have stuck through this rollercoaster of mediocrity and while showing undeniable support, the frustrations of another lackluster season are on the horizon. It looks as though the Atlantic Division is once again projecting to be a juggernaut and after failing to address some holes in the lineup, the Sabres have set themselves up for falling short.

Season Expectations

From the outside looking in it seems as though both the front office and the market have the same goal in mind; playoffs or bust. Yet, after combing through the moves of this offseason in particular, it begs the question if management has set unrealistic expectations within the organization after only filling in depth roles. There is no doubt that the Sabres have a roster full of young talent that is on the right trajectory as far as development, however, the top-six forward group in particular seems to be voided of a consistent contributor for this season after the buyout of Jeff Skinner.

After seeing the transactions of the other teams in the Atlantic Division this offseason, the Sabres fell short of keeping pace, yet again. While we will see players like Zach Benson, JJ Peterka, Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn, Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen take steps in their development, there still is not enough certainty that this momentum will propel them into the playoff picture. One things for sure, the league is a better place when the Sabres are competitive, but it is wise to remain realistic over optimistic.

Projected Lines

Lindy Ruff is returning behind the bench adding to his Sabres lore. Ruff has a well-established and respected reputation in the NHL coaching community, known for his longevity, adaptability, and ability to develop teams, particularly in the defensive aspects of the game. Identifying what he will bring to this current Sabres roster justifies General Manager Kevyn Adams decision to hire him. Expect there to be major adjustments in the goals against category, and a defensive efficiency to each line with the balance of development for the younger players.

To clarify, these line projections are meant to only predict the start of the season. With so many potential combinations possible and a new head coach, its almost certain that there are tweaks and additions of new faces by the end of the year. Expect the season to start as such:

JJ Peterka – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch
Zach Benson – Dylan Cozens – Jack Quinn
Jason Zucker – Ryan McLeod – Sam Lafferty
Peyton Krebs – Beck Malenstyn – Jordan Greenway

Rasmus Dahlin – Bowen Byram
Owen Power – Connor Clifton
Mattias Samuelsson – Henri Jokiharju

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
James Reimer

Scratches: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Jacob Bryson

Line 1
With Jeff Skinner now out of the fold, the LW1 spot is open for Peterka to take advantage of. Peterka broke out last year scoring 28 goals and 50 points while producing 21.9 Expected Goals, which had him tied with Maple Leafs star Mitch Marner. Thompson has proven he can be a top line player but will still need to find consistency after having a rough year last season. Tuch provides speed, scoring and leadership for this line and can be counted on for consistently driving the rush. Although, these three players only played 155.7 minutes together on a line last year and did not seem to have chemistry with a net -0.73 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. However, with new roles opening up and a new coaching staff in place, we will see if the system change impacts this line positively.

Line 2
This line has the potential to provide a lot of offense this season depending on Benson’s growth, and the ability for Quinn to stay healthy. Last year, this line played a limited 14 games together for only 66.6 minutes of total ice, yet, they still managed to have a net 0.45 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes and a 53.5% xGoals %. While those numbers might not seem overly impressive, it still placed this line at the same percentage as the Jake Debrusk-Pavel Zacha-David Pastrnak line in Boston. Cozens will be an anchor and should have a nice bounce back season with speedy line mates who have an offensive flair. Will be intriguing to see if HC Ruff entrust Benson early on in a top-six role over a veteran like Zucker.

Line 3
These three players together might be the fastest line in all of hockey. The investment to offense with the top-six lines is balanced by having a defensive third line that can finish on turnovers and contribute to a neutral zone rush. Zucker brings a veteran presence along with the ability to be shuffled between lines when need be. McLeod brings plenty of speed through the center position that the Sabres have been lacking, and can also contribute to the penalty kill. Lafferty makes sense on this line for the speed component as well, however, overall last season in offensive metrics especially, he outperformed Greenway which potentially slots himself higher in the depth chart.

Line 4
Sabres fans were left a little puzzled by the acquisition of Malenstyn this offseason for the price of a second round pick. Yet, he will quickly become a fan favourite with his work ethic and he makes an ideal fourth line center. Krebs will likely be battling for a spot in camp, but he seemed to have a little bit of chemistry with Greenway last year which may vault him into the lineup over Aube-Kubel. Greenway will be a wild card again, he has shown the ability to play high in the lineup when injuries occur but has yet to find consistency and often struggles defensively.

Pair 1
Dahlin is the xfactor for this entire Sabres squad, if he plays well, the team will play well. Dahlin and Byram only played 15 games and 141.2 minutes together last season and showed glimpses of promise. Ultimately, they managed to produce a net -0.34 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes with an underwhelming 47.1% xGoals %, which placed the pairing 148th in the league with at least 140 minutes of ice time as a pair. These numbers might not be great, but with a new coaching system configured for a sound defensive structure, another year for Byram to get comfortable in Buffalo, and Dahlin expected to take more steps his game, this pair could change the narrative of the Sabres season.

Pair 2
There is questions when it comes to this pair regarding if Power will be paired with Clifton, Jokiharju, or even possibly Samuelsson. Overall, looking at the numbers from last year gives reason to believe Clifton is the more suitable partner for Power. We all know numbers aren’t everything, but they do tell part of the narrative and should be considered when the eye-test fails. The pairing of Power-Clifton played a total of 192.4 minutes together last season and produced a net 0.06 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes and 50.7% xGoals %, which placed them 85th in the league with at least 190 minutes of ice time as a pair. In contrast, Power-Jokiharju produced a net -0.85 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes and 41.6% xGoals %, which placed them 160th in the league with at least 190 minutes of ice time as a pair.

Pair 3
Having a fully healthy Samuelsson makes all the difference for this defensive core. After only playing 41 games last year due to injury, he will look to defensively anchor the blue line. Jokiharju played with Samulesson last year in a limited 25 games, but the pair still managed to produce a net 0.78 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes and 59.3% xGoals %, which led the Sabres pairing combinations with at least 25 games played together. We will see if HC Ruff mixes and matches as the season goes on, but having partners that produce like this will make for a reliable third pair.

Goalies
Luukkonen really came into his own form last year and was a bright spot in a sore season for the Sabres. After playing 54 games he posted 27 wins with a 2.57 goals against average and 0.910 save percentage, which earned him a five-year $23.75 million contract, solidifying his presence on the team. Reimer comes in as a veteran who can help mentor both Luukkonen and Devon Levi. Expect to see Reimer get the more prominent backup role and Levi getting some starts at the NHL level, while receiving a hefty amount of starts in the AHL to continue his development.

Scratches
Aube-Kubel may find a role on the fourth line to start the season, though we can expect Krebs to possibly beat him out. Aube-Kubel adds another element of speed and penalty killing that HC Ruff can utilize for specific matchups, just expect him to be the 13th forward. Bryson is a reliable 7th defenseman for any team. He can fill in for injuries no problem and will be a positive element in the locker room.

Keys To Success

The greatest objective the Sabres can achieve this season would be making the playoffs, even though it seems unrealistic on paper and not what we are projecting. With odds stacked against them in a tough Atlantic Division, the focus can be shifted to developmental gains in Benson, Peterka, Quinn, Power and Luukkonen, along with prospects within the system. Dahlin can also take a major step forward and cement himself as a continuous Norris Trophy candidate, which he is more than capable of doing. Furthermore, HC Ruff and GM Adams will need to find a balance between wins and maintaining a trajectory of developmental growth for the betterment of the franchise. There will also be a crossroads closer to the trade deadline where GM Adams will need to put his foot in the ground and commit to being a buyer or seller. Realistically, success will come with the progression of the franchise internally, and not an advancement within the league standings.

Potential Downfall

With patience understandably running out from an educated fan base, the worse thing that can happen this year is if GM Adams feels that pressure and makes short-term patches on the roster at the expense of long-term assets. Since the Sabres have not reached the playoffs since 2011 it would be easy to jump the gun and upgrade positions at whatever cost they may be. However, the Sabres seem like a team that is a year out from being competitive, and if GM Adams were to sacrifice any prospects or assets that could have a significant impact on the Sabres in the future, it would be malpractice. Fans have shown tremendous resilience and patience when it comes to the last decade and a half with this team, and one more year of disappointment is a fair trade for consistent years back in the playoffs.

Future Outlook

Overall, the future of the Sabres is promising. While the Atlantic Division may be extremely competitive right now, the Sabres have one thing that most of their counterparts don’t have; a young core. With every year that passes the other teams will get older and have more difficult time maintaining the revolving door of the roster to stay competitive, and the Sabres players will be entering their prime. This transition is bound to happen, and with the likes of Devon Levi, Jiri Kulich, Konsta Helenius, Isak Rosen, Anton Wahlberg, Noah Ostlund, Vsevolod Komarov and Maxim Strbak in the system already, there is a lot to be excited about.

Final Thoughts

The dark days for Sabres fans are almost over. This season will provide hope for a sustained competitive future, yet it seems there is one more year of growing pains before that much anticipated return to the playoffs. There still can be a fair amount to galvanize this season like Dahlin chasing a Norris Trophy, HC Ruff returning to Buffalo, and Benson and other younger players taking the next steps in their developments. Buffalo and it’s fans deserve to have a winning team, and that reality is just around the corner.