Season Preview – 22. St. Louis Blues

The St. Louis Blues are entering the 2024-25 season with tempered expectations, projecting to miss the playoffs for the third season in a row. With the loss of Torey Krug for the season, and the need for internal growth, the team faces an uphill battle. The addition of new faces provide some fresh energy, but the team will need balance across its forward lines and continued strong goaltending from Jordan Binnington to have any hope of contending. While inconsistency may hold them back, the Blues have a strong prospect pool that signals a bright future, making this a crucial year for development as they build towards a more competitive roster in the years to come.

Season Expectations

The St. Louis Blues enter the season with a sense of cautious optimism, knowing that their current roster is unlikely to contend for a playoff spot but focused on internal development and setting the stage for future success. As the team navigates key challenges, including the season-long absence of defenseman Torey Krug, fans shouldn’t hold their breath for any impressive outcomes. However, the acquisition of promising young talents like Philip Broberg, who will get a full-season look in the top four, and the dynamic Dylan Holloway, who brings speed and potential to the forward group, offers glimmers of hope for growth.

The Blues will rely on there young players to develop chemistry with veterans like Brayden Schenn, Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich and Justin Faulk, but the team’s success will largely hinge on their ability to balance their lines and avoid the inconsistency that plagued them last season. Goaltending will be another critical factor, as Jordan Binnington must maintain his form from last year if the team is to stay competitive. While this season is unlikely to produce immediate results, it is a vital year for evaluating talent and creating a cohesive team identity that can drive success in the seasons to come. The prospect pool is deep, and the Blues are clearly building for the future, with this season serving as a stepping stone for the young core to take on larger roles in the coming years.

Projected Lines

Finding balance across their lines will be one of the Blues biggest tasks this season, especially as they look to inject speed and skill into their lineup. With Broberg set to step into a top-four defensive role and Krug set to miss the entire campaign, the team’s defense is likely to undergo a transition period, while the forward group will need to gel quickly to compete.

To clarify, these line projections are meant to only predict the start of the season. With so many potential combinations possible, its almost certain that there are tweaks and additions of new faces by the end of the year. Expect the season to start as such:

Pavel Buchnevich – Robert Thomas – Jordan Kyrou
Brandon Saad – Brayden Schenn – Jake Neighbours
Dylan Holloway – Radek Faksa – Alexey Toropchenko
Alexandre Texier – Oskar Sundqvist – Mathieu Joseph

Nick Leddy – Colton Parayko
Philip Broberg – Justin Faulk
Scott Perunovich – Matthew Kessel

Jordan Binnington
Joel Hofer

Scratches: Kasperi Kapanen, Nathan Walker, Ryan Suter

Line 1
This line was together the most out of all Blues forward combinations last season. In total, they played 497.9 minutes together in 59 games while producing a 50.9% xGoals % and a net 0.09 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. The numbers are not very impressive for any first line in the NHL, however all three players have shown they can take on the top scoring roles and produce consistently for the team. Since joining the Blues, Buchnevich has played 216 games and put up 206 points along with 83 goals, which earned him a six-year, $48.0 million extension that starts next season. Thomas solidified his identity as a first-line center last year, and will look to continue to climb the ranks as one of the better two-way players in the league. Kyrou fell out of favour with the coaching staff last year, but was able to rebound and still pot 67 points in 82 games. He will look to build off the momentum he had at the end of the year and work on his 200 foot play.

Line 2
This was the second most utilized line last season for the Blues, though it proved to be a defensive liability. Together they only play 26 games for a total of 180.7 minutes together, yet managing an abysmal 42.7% xGoals % along with a net -0.87 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. With Neighbours projected to take a next step in his game, there should be a more balanced metric throughout the season. Saad has shown that his speed is his most significant attribute, allowing the team to get out of their own zone and produce off the rush. Schenn has been a tremendous leader on and off the ice for this team and has proven he is worthy of wearing the ‘C’, yet he will need to adapt his game to the speed of his wingers in order to remain effective in a second line role.

Line 3
This can be considered a major wild card combination for the forward lines. With two new comers in Holloway and Faksa, it is difficult to predict how effective they will be without any metric evidence to go by. However, we can determine they might have usefulness due to Holloway’s speed and Faksa’s defensive acumen, along with Toropchenko’s size and skill set. They will most likely be relied on to control play and create an overwhelming forecheck on oppositions, though due to the IQ of all three players, they should be able to contribute regularly for a third line. Holloway also has the ability to move up and down the lineup depending on chemistry and injuries. Time will tell how this line looks after training camp and preseason is completed.

Line 4
Another case of speedy wingers with a solid defensive-first center. With many new faces added to the team after a busy offseason, Texier is one that strikes the most interesting. After returning to the NHL last season, he proved he is a trustworthy NHLer that provides speed and a two-way game best suited for a penalty killing and bottom-six role. Matching that skill set with a big bodied defensive-first center like Sundqvist, could be prosperous for any fourth line in the NHL. Now add the speed and compete of Joseph to this line, and the Blues coaching staff led by Drew Bannister, will utilize this line to provide energy and shutdown play.

Pair 1
This was the only combination of either forwards or defenseman to play the entire 82 games last season together. While they never played the full season games side-by-side, the Blues coaching staff obviously felt comfortable in the chemistry the pair had. Regardless, they weren’t able to generate any positive metrics for a top-pair, posting a mere 43.8% xGoals % and a net -0.63 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. Even though the analytics illustrate a majority of outcomes in the league, they do not tell the full story, which is why this pair is projected to at least start the season together.

Pair 2
This pair can easily overtake the first pairing and become the anchor for the Blues this season, depending on how Broberg translates into a full-time top-four NHL defenseman. Faulk has proven he can be a reliable option in the top-four and second powerplay, and will look to have a full season after missing 22 games last year due to inury. His IQ and leadership can be an extreme catalyst for Broberg’s development as his partner. Both players think the game more offensively, yet Faulk can provide a perfect example of how Broberg can maintain his offensive mind while still being effective in his own zone. Blues fans should be excited to see how Broberg pans out, and the opportunity he has in front of him leaves no ceiling too high.

Pair 3
The third pair comes with a fair amount of speculation and most likely will see a full rotation as the season progresses. Since the Blues are in a transition mode, it would be wise for them to continue to showcase Kessel in order to understand what his future holds within the franchise. Being a smooth skating 6’2″ right-handed defenseman who is only 24 years old, is an asset that the Blues should invest in over a veteran like Suter. Also, Perunovich has shown flashes of brilliance and almost plays the same style as Krug does. While the pair looked unimpressive together last year with a 40% xGoals % and net -0.8 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, we can save face for them as the sample size was only 59.7 minutes in total. Hopefully the coaching staff can help both players gel and form a solid third pairing as the season progresses.

Goalies
Last season, Binnington made a case for himself as one of the top goaltenders in the league. Metrics alone, Binnington was ranked 5th overall out of every goaltender with a 16.5 Goals Saved Above Expected. He was also able to put up a stat line of 27 wins/2.84 GAA/0.913SV% which almost marched the Blues back into the playoffs. Binnington will need to maintain this success if the Blues have any shot of sneaking in this year. Hofer on the other hand, illustrated he can be an extremely effective backup in the NHL. With a minimum of 30 games played, he ranked 11th overall in the league with a 10.3 Goals Saved Above Expected, which is impressive for any young goaltender. This tandem is the backbone of the Blues, and without putting too much pressure on their seasons, however they play will determine the teams success this year.

Scratches
The Blues have positioned themselves to have viable depth pieces they can carry on the NHL roster throughout the season. Kapanen is a quick skating bottom-six NHL player that will see playing time when different matchups arise. Walker has proven he is capable of being a bottom-six winger as well, and will have the same fate as Kapanen as the season continues. Suter is an interesting case, he is a veteran and a stay-at-home defenseman who can provide steady play when a different look is needed. Although, it would be wise to focus on the development of players like Perunovich and Kessel over the aging Suter.

Keys To Success

For the Blues to have any chance at exceeding expectations and contending for a playoff spot, several key factors must fall into place:

1. Elite Goaltending from Jordan Binnington
   Binnington’s consistency will be crucial. He needs to maintain his form from last season and continue to showcase his talent that made him a Stanley Cup winning goaltender in 2019. If Binnington can provide elite-level goaltending, it will keep the Blues in games even when the rest of the roster struggles.
2. Balance Across Forward Lines
   The Blues must find balance in their forward lines to generate offense from more than just their top line. Young players like Dylan Holloway and Jake Neighbours will need to step up, and veterans like Brayden Schenn and Brandon Saad must lead by example. Secondary scoring will be key, especially if the top line hits a rough patch.
3. Development of Philip Broberg
   With Torey Krug out for the season, Philip Broberg will need to make a significant impact in the top-four defense. His ability to adjust to the NHL and play key minutes alongside experienced defensemen like Justin Faulk will be essential for maintaining defensive stability.
4. Special Teams Improvement
   The Blues need better results on both the power play and penalty kill. These areas were inconsistent last season and will need to improve if St. Louis hopes to compete with stronger teams. A more effective power play will take pressure off their even-strength play, while a solid penalty kill can prevent momentum swings against them.
5. Continued Growth from Young Core
   The Blues younger players like Neighbours, Holloway, Broberg, Kessel, and Hofer must continue to grow and take on larger roles. This season will hinge on their ability to shoulder more responsibility, contribute in all aspects, and develop into the leaders of the future.

Potential Downfall

The biggest concern for the Blues this season is the possibility of inconsistency across the board, which could derail their chances of making any significant progress. Without Torey Krug anchoring the blue line, the defense may struggle, especially if Philip Broberg doesn’t quickly adjust to a top-four role or if Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk falter under increased pressure. The lack of elite defensive depth could expose the Blues to high-scoring games, forcing them to rely too heavily on their goaltenders to keep them competitive.

Offensively, the team’s scoring depth is a significant question mark. The Blues top producers of Thomas, Kyrou, and Buchnevich are expected to lead the charge, but if they fail to consistently produce, the team may struggle to generate offense. The secondary scoring from players like Dylan Holloway, Jake Neighbours, and Brandon Saad remains unproven at this point, and if these players don’t step up, the Blues could be stuck in low-scoring affairs that they simply won’t be able to win.

Finally, the team’s overall lack of experience and chemistry could lead to further setbacks. With several young players taking on larger roles and key veterans trying to shoulder the load, there’s a risk that the roster might not mesh as quickly as needed. Any prolonged losing streaks early in the season could hurt team morale, making it difficult to recover and build momentum. If these challenges combine, the Blues could see themselves fall further down the standings, with little hope of competing for a playoff spot.

Future Outlook

Despite the challenges the Blues are likely to face this season, the franchise’s future looks bright thanks to a strong and deep prospect pool. While the team may miss the playoffs this year, the next generation of talent is poised to make a major impact in the coming seasons. Players like Otto Stenberg, Jakub Stancl, and Juraj Pekarcik bring offensive skill and versatility, providing hope that the Blues can revitalize their forward lines. The Blues defensive future also looks promising with players like Theo Lindstein, Adam Jiricek, Lukas Fischer, and Colin Ralph, who bring different but complementary skill sets to the blue line.

In addition to these promising young players, the Blues boast a few high-end prospects already knocking on the door of NHL readiness, including Jimmy Snuggerud, Zachary Bolduc, and Dalibor Dvorsky. Snuggerud, a highly skilled winger, has shown top-line potential with his lethal shot and ability to make plays in the offensive zone. Bolduc, another dynamic forward, has the tools to be a top-six scoring threat with his speed and offensive creativity. Meanwhile, Dvorsky, has the potential to be a future franchise difference maker down the middle, offering high-end playmaking and vision combined with a responsible two-way game. With this combination of future stars, the Blues are well-positioned to take a leap forward in the coming years.

Final Thoughts

This season for the St. Louis Blues is likely to be a transitional year. Missing the playoffs appears to be the most realistic outcome as the team focuses on development, growth, and setting the stage for future success. While fans may be frustrated with short-term struggles, the long-term outlook is promising as prospects develop and new leaders emerge. If the Blues can keep their core intact and see growth from their young players, they have the tools to be competitive again soon. This season may not yield immediate rewards, but it is a crucial step in their journey back to contention.