Season Preview – 21. Detroit Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings are heading into the 2024-25 NHL season with hopes of breaking their playoff drought, but they face an uphill battle. With several key players still unsigned, a shaky defense, and a goaltending committee that lacks a true No. 1 option, Detroit seems destined to fall short once again. A puzzling offseason and growing frustration among the fanbase toward general manager Steve Yzerman’s patient approach suggest that the Red Wings will continue their extended playoff absence and finish 21st in the league.

Season Expectations

Heading into the season, the Detroit Red Wings seem to be treading water. While many expected the team to build on last year’s promise, uncertainty surrounds two key restricted free agents, Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, both of whom remain unsigned. These young stars are crucial to the Red Wings core, and until their contracts are sorted out, there’s a lingering question about Detroit’s long-term stability. Their absence or delayed return to the lineup could seriously hurt the Wings chances early in the season.

Detroit’s defense, in particular, has taken a hit. The surprising trade of Jake Walman, one of their more reliable defenders last season, has left a noticeable hole on the blueline. With no major acquisitions to bolster the defense, the Red Wings enter the season weaker on the back end. This lack of defensive depth will likely haunt the team throughout the year. In net, the Red Wings are betting on a goaltending-by-committee approach, but none of their options—Cam Talbot, Ville Husso, or Alex Lyon—have shown they can be relied upon as a true number one. The lack of stability in goal could be a major factor that dooms their season, as goaltending is critical in a highly competitive Eastern Conference.

Projected Lines

The Red Wings head into the new season with several pressing concerns. Their defense lacks depth, which could make them susceptible to high-powered offenses. In goal, there are uncertainties regarding the reliability of a true starter, adding risk to their overall performance. Additionally, with revamped forward lines, the team faces the challenge of developing chemistry and finding a cohesive offensive rhythm, which will be crucial for their success.

To clarify, these line projections are meant to only predict the start of the season. With so many potential combinations possible, its almost certain that there are tweaks and additions of new faces by the end of the year. Expect the season to start as such:

Alex DeBrincat – Dylan Larkin – Patrick Kane
Lucas Raymond – J.T. Compher – Vladimir Tarasenko
Michael Rasmussen – Andrew Copp – Jonatan Berggren
Tyler Motte – Joe Veleno – Christian Fischer

Ben Chiarot – Mortiz Seider
Simon Edvinsson – Jeff Petry
Erik Gustafsson – Olli Maatta

Cam Talbot
Alex Lyon
Ville Husso

Scratches: Joe Snively, Justin Holl

Line 1
Both top two lines are difficult to predict with Tarasenko entering the fold. At first it seems easy to suggest the Red Wings go back to Raymond-Larkin-DeBrincat since they were the most successful line overall for the Red Wings last year. However, both Tarasenko and Kane have shown they are almost only effective as a RW, leaving options limited on LW. If the Red Wings spread out their offense then they can be more powerful as the season progresses. The line of DeBrincat-Larkin-Kane only spent 28 games together last year and were not very impressive posting a 47.4% xGoals % and a net -0.28 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. Yet, the Red Wings will need them to find their chemistry if they are going to make any improvements in the standings this year.

Line 2
This line seems to be ideal on paper, yet time will tell if they can play well together. Raymond broke out last year playing 82 games and putting up 31 goals and 72 points. Compher is much more effective in a 3C role, however with options limited he will need to be relied on to carry the 2C role again. Tarasenko is coming fresh off a Stanley Cup in Florida where HC Paul Maurice set expectations for him as “one goal per series”. The Red Wings will need to set expectations higher with Tarasenko and will need him to be a reliable 25+ goal scorer, which he is more than capable of.

Line 3
This is an interesting line overall. They have the potential to chip in offensively but also can provide cycle play to wear opposing teams down. Rasmussen is entering the first year of his four-year, $12.8 million extension and the Red Wings will need him to continue his growth at the trajectory he has for the last three seasons. Copp still has yet to find his footing in Detroit, considering he is earning $5.625 million per year as a 3C which is extremely non-cost effective. He will need to step up and drive this line to provide the balance the Red Wings are desperate for. Berggren is a fast skilled forward who can provide some offense but has still yet to prove himself as a full-time NHLer. This season will be crucial for him to contribute and solidify himself as a top-nine option for the Red Wings.

Line 4
There is a lot to like about this fourth line. While it may not be extremely impressive on paper, all three players bring a work ethic that can rub off on the other lines. Motte is a journeyman who provides a defensive IQ that can be invaluable for a successful penalty kill. Veleno has shown flashes of his potential, but with the center depth charts in order, he will most likely fall to the 4C role, if not having a more prominent role with the third line. Fischer is a big body that can create separation or battle at the boards, and can be productive with limited ice time.

Pair 1
This is where things start to get a little sparse for the Red Wings. Chiarot and Seider both played sometime together last year with a total of 292 minutes as a pair. They were far from impressive though producing a 43.1% xGoals % and a net -0.72 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which is rough for a third pairing nevermind a top-pair, which is currently how they slot. There will probably be a rotation of Gustafsson as Seider’s partner since he can skate and join the rush more effectively than Chiarot.

Pair 2
This will more than likely be the best pair for the Red Wings this season, as long as they remain with limited ice time and favourable matchups. Edvinsson has a very high ceiling and fans should be excited to see him in action for his first full-season. Petry is a solid vet that can still produce in a top-four role, as long as he is not burdened with a heavy load. This pair played a total of 201.7 minutes together last season, producing a 54.7% xGoals % and a net 0.51 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which they will look to build on this season.

Pair 3
There is speculation how the third pair will look, simply due to contract status’ from all players involved. Maatta is on an expiring deal but showed last year he can be relied on to provide a shutdown presence that the team lacks. Gustafsson is coming in on a new two-year, $4.0 million deal and is a savvy puck mover who is offensively minded with the ability to join the rush. It would be wise for the Red Wings to at least start the year seeing how well these two can play as a pair. There is also a possibility that the Red Wings find themselves playing an 11-7 lineup with Holl joining the fold in a specialist type role. Time will tell who earns the spots as there are only so many chairs to go around.

Goalies
GM Yzerman made an astute move by searching for better goaltending option in the offseason. However, Talbot is not the answer Red Wings fans had hoped for. Talbot has shown glimpses of brilliance as a 1A tandem starter in the past, though when he is most successful it is due to the defensive structure that is in front of him. This Red Wings team lacks any defensive structure, which will not favour Talbot’s game. Lyon proved last year he deserves to be at least 1B role over Husso, who struggled mightily. There will no doubt be competitions from the start of the season to the end, which can yield success if done right. Nevertheless, it would be wise not to put too much stock in another weakness for this team.

Scratches
Snivley is going to be an injury replacement type, he can be a injection of speed and skill, something that Austin Czarnik gave last year. Holl’s tenure in Detroit so far has left a lot to be desired after signing a three-year, $10.2 million deal last offseason. He will need to step up and fight for his spot if he intends on being more than a injury replacement, which he can definitely do.

Keys to Success

For the Red Wings to exceed expectations this season, several key factors must align:

Offensive Breakouts from Key Players: For the Red Wings to have any shot at making the playoffs, they will need massive contributions from their top offensive players. Larkin, DeBrincat, Kane, and Tarasenko will need to carry the scoring load. If Raymond signs before or early on in the season, that could also give Detroit a fighting chance to stay competitive in a tough Atlantic Division.

Goaltending Surprise: Husso has shown flashes of brilliance in his career, but the Red Wings are hoping that either Lyon or veteran Cam Talbot can put together a consistent season in net. If Detroit can somehow stabilize their goaltending situation, they may be able to steal a few more games than anticipated.

Seider and Raymond Signing: Getting Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond signed and back in the lineup is absolutely critical for the Red Wings hopes this season. Seider is their top defenseman and a potential franchise cornerstone, while Raymond is a young offensive weapon whose ceiling remains high. Their absence would severely limit the team’s potential to improve.

Improved Special Teams Play: Detroit’s special teams will need to significantly improve if they want to compete. Last season, their power play and penalty kill were inconsistent, often costing them games. With the addition of Tarasenko and Gustafsson, there’s potential for the power play to become more effective. A stronger penalty kill will also be crucial, especially with a weaker defense this season. If the Red Wings can capitalize on man-advantage situations and tighten up their penalty kill, it could be the difference between staying in games or letting them slip away.

Potential Downfall

Unfortunately for Detroit, there are several glaring issues that could lead to their downfall this season. The decision to trade Jake Walman and neglect the blueline in the offseason looks increasingly questionable. The defensive unit is now weaker than last season, and without a true number two defenseman behind Seider, Detroit’s ability to handle high-powered offenses is concerning.

The goaltending situation is another red flag. None of Husso, Talbot, or Lyon have proven they can take control of the net for a full season, and in a division with top-tier offensive talent, this is a major issue. A weak defense combined with unreliable goaltending spells trouble.

Finally, GM Yzerman’s patient approach to the rebuild has worn thin with the fanbase. After years of stockpiling prospects and draft picks, Detroit still looks far from competing. Another playoff miss could force GM Yzerman to reconsider his long-term strategy.

Future Outlook

While the Red Wings are expected to struggle this season, their future remains bright thanks to an impressive prospect pool. GM Yzerman has made a concerted effort to build through the draft, and the organization is stocked with young talent that could turn the team’s fortunes around in the coming years.

The prospect pipeline features standout names like Marco Kasper, Nate Danielson, and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard at forward, all of whom are developing into players capable of filling key roles in Detroit’s lineup. On defense, promising blue-liners like Axel Sandin-Pellikka and Shai Buium offer hope for a more solidified back end in the future, potentially alleviating the defensive weaknesses currently plaguing the team. In goal, the Red Wings have two highly-regarded prospects in Sebastian Cossa and Trey Augustine, who could emerge as long-term solutions between the pipes.

This deep and talented group of prospects ensures that, while Detroit may fall short this season, the long-term outlook is promising. If this young core develops as expected, the Red Wings could transform into a competitive force in the coming years. However, patience will remain key as these prospects continue to grow and mature into NHL-ready players.

Final Thoughts

The 2024-25 season looks to be another frustrating campaign for the Detroit Red Wings. With uncertainty surrounding their key RFAs, a weak defensive core, and questionable goaltending, it’s hard to imagine this team breaking into the playoff picture. While general manager Steve Yzerman’s long-term vision has always been one of patience, the clock is ticking, and this could be the year when fans start demanding results. Finishing 21st in the league and missing the playoffs once again seems like a realistic projection for a team still searching for its identity.