Season Preview – 20. New York Islanders

The New York Islanders head into the 2024-25 NHL season with tempered expectations and a likely finish outside the playoff picture. Projected to finish 20th in the league, they face significant challenges, including a lack of forward depth and concerns about their goaltending situation. Head coach Patrick Roy has been ushering in a new style of rush hockey that demands faster forwards, but the Islanders roster may not be equipped to excel in that system. Meanwhile, general manager Lou Lamoriello has been quiet during the offseason, leaving the team’s flaws largely unaddressed. In a hyper-competitive Eastern Conference, the Islanders are at risk of being left behind.

Season Expectations

After making the playoffs last year, the New York Islanders enter the this season with modest hopes and more questions than answers. They’re projected for a position that suggests mediocrity and another year outside the postseason. The team’s major weaknesses lie in their lack of forward depth and an offense that struggled to generate consistent scoring last season. While the Islanders defensive core remains solid, the team lacks high-end depth up front to compete in an Eastern Conference stacked with offensive powerhouses.

The hiring of head coach Patrick Roy last year marked a shift in the Islanders playing style. Roy has implemented a more aggressive, rush-based system that prioritizes speed and quick transitions, a significant departure from the structured, defensive style the Islanders have relied on in previous years. However, with a forward group that isn’t particularly fast or skilled, the system could backfire in a full season, especially if they struggle to generate offense off the rush.

Furthermore, general manager Lou Lamoriello’s decision to stand pat during the offseason, failing to add any significant pieces to address the team’s key weaknesses, has only exacerbated concerns. The Islanders may find themselves outmatched by more talented teams and facing an uphill battle just to stay competitive in a crowded Eastern Conference.

Projected Lines

The Islanders projected lines for this season reflect their struggles with forward depth and reliance on familiar names to carry the offense. With Patrick Roy maintaining a faster, rush-based system, the lines will likely be adjusted throughout the season to find the best fit.

To clarify, these line projections are meant to only predict the start of the season. With so many potential combinations possible, its almost certain that there are tweaks and additions of new faces by the end of the year. Expect the season to start as such:

Anthony Duclair – Bo Horvat – Matthew Barzal
Pierre Engvall – Brock Nelson – Kyle Palmieri
Anders Lee – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – Simon Holmstrom
Kyle MacLean – Casey Cizikas – Maxim Tsyplakov

Adam Pelech – Noah Dobson
Alexander Romanov – Ryan Pulock
Mike Reilly – Scott Mayfield

Ilya Sorokin
Semyon Varlamov

Scratches: Oliver Wahlstrom, Hudson Fasching, Samuel Bolduc

Line 1
One of the only major transactions GM Lamoriello made this offseason was signing Duclair via free agency. Duclair has shown in his last few seasons that he is capable of being a regular contributor in a top-6 role, and his speed and agility will be a major catalyst for the top line. Horvat and Barzal have been a dynamic duo since Horvat was acquired from the Vancouver Canucks two seasons ago. Horvat attention to detail and solid two-way game has been complimented by Barzal’s high offensive IQ and speed. Mixing these three players with their own added elements to the top line should create success and consistent production.

Line 2
This line was the Islanders most utilized combination for forwards last season, In total, they played 563.5 minutes together, producing a 55.3% xGoals % along with a net 0.64 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. Engvall brings speed and a two-way style that is slowly improving each season. Nelson is a big bodied power forward centerman that can create space and score on a whim. Palmieri brings a veteran presence, packaged with a sneaky shot and quickness for the rush. They have shown reliability as a second line, and will look to continue to build off the chemistry from last year.

Line 3
Here is where things get a little interesting. Lee has been a top-six forward for his entire career, but he has gradually been losing speed the last couple of years. With the addition of Duclair and the chemistry the second line has shown they are capable of, it seems only fitting that Lee is bumped down into a third line role. Pageau is an underrated two-way centerman that can shutdown top-line players and still find a way to contribute offensively. Holmstrom has earned his spot in the top-nine and will more than likely move up in the lineup when HC Roy shuffles his lines. Overall, this line brings attention to detail on both ends of the puck and should prove to be effective.

Line 4
The identity line has a new identity. With the departures of work horse veterans Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin, the fourth line will now be bringing speed and an offensive touch to produce energy. MacLean showed us last year that he is a legitimate NHL bottom-six forward and with HC Roy implementing more structured rush systems, it only makes sense to keep MacLean. Cizikas is the epitome of a fourth line centerman, he focuses solely on defense and can break up or create a cycle at will. Tsyplakov is entering his first season in the NHL after developing in the KHL. He has been used to being an offensive weapon, but knowing HC Roy, he will have to earn his spot in the top lines in order to play there.

Pair 1
There is speculation whether or not HC Roy will look to balance his top-four defensive pairings or stay with familiarity. With Dobson breaking out into his own form last year and taking over as the Islanders top elite defenseman, it makes sense to give him Pelech as his partner. Dobson will be joining more rushes and providing offense from the blueline and Pelech can maintain a steady calm presence covering for Dobson. Last year, this pair was together for 442.6 minutes and produced a 49.7% xGoals % along with a net -0.02 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. While the numbers are not the greatest as a pair, the ability to improve should come easily to these two.

Pair 2
Speaking of balancing the pairs, the departure of the long time Pelech-Pulock pairing is important for sustained success. Romanov brings speed for the rush and also can hit like a train. Pulock provides steady play that can be reliable for both 5-on-5 and penalty kill time. Last year, these two played together a total of 511.8 minutes producing a 51.5% xGoals % and a net 0.15 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. Managing a more balanced top-four can work in the Islanders favour, especially if Dobson continues to grow into one of the leagues budding blueliners.

Pair 3
One of the surprises of the Islanders last year was the effectiveness that Reilly brought to the team. With the departure of defender Sebastian Aho this offseason, the third pairing left side is Reilly’s to keep. His ability to contribute to the style of HC Roy’s system is an underrated element of his game. Mixing that Reilly’s skill set with a stay-at-home rock of Mayfield should create a solid third pairing for the Islanders. We do not have any numbers to base this pairings effectiveness from last year, but be prepared to see this pair together for the majority of the season.

Goalies
Ilya Sorokin is entering the first year of his mammoth eight-year, $66.0 million dollar extension, and unfortunately at the end of last season he seemed to have fallen out of favour with HC Roy. Entering this year coming off back surgery, Sorokin will likely take time to adjust and have to earn his head coaches trust as the season progresses. Varlamov may be the best ‘backup’ goaltender in the league. His ability to keep his team in every game, and also was relied on heavily during last years playoffs, shows he still has a lot of game left and compete level. This tandem may turn out to be the best tandem in the league this year, depending how the team in front of them performs.

Scratches
Wahlstrom’s time as an Islander seems to be at a climax. He has shown flashes of brilliance, yet has never been able to solidify himself as a regular NHL contributor. This season will likely be his last as an Islander, barring any breakout play that may happen in his limited allocated ice time. Fasching is a reliable bottom-six player that can fill in for injuries or possible favourable matchups. Do not expect him to be an 82 game player, but he will still be able to provide energy when he is given a chance to play. Bolduc will likely see a rotation in the bottom pairing of the team this season. He has shown he can be a legitimate NHL player, yet his style of play does not align with HC Roy’s vision, which is why we most likely see him as the 7th defenseman throughout the year.

Keys to Success

For the Islanders to exceed expectations, a few key elements must fall into place. First and foremost, they need star goaltender Ilya Sorokin to return to his elite form. Sorokin faltered at the end of last season, losing his starting job to veteran Semyon Varlamov during the playoffs. If Sorokin can bounce back and be a stabilizing force between the pipes, the Islanders will at least have a chance to stay in games against tougher opponents.

Defensively, the Islanders remain strong, with Noah Dobson, Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech leading the way. If the team can maintain its defensive structure while adapting to Roy’s faster pace, it could mitigate the lack of firepower up front. Mathew Barzal will once again be tasked with carrying the offense, but he will need more support from the likes of Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, and Anthony Duclair, if the team hopes to contend for a playoff spot.

The Islanders ability to maintain a full season under Roy’s new system will also be crucial. Players like Kyle Palmieri and Jean-Gabriel Pageau will need to step up and provide secondary scoring, while depth forwards like Simon Holmstrom, Pierre Engvall, and new comer Maxim Tsyplakov, will have to embrace the increased pace of play and become regular contributors.

Potential Downfall

The Islanders most glaring weakness is their lack of offensive depth. With little scoring support behind Barzal, Horvat, and Nelson the team could struggle to keep up with high-flying offenses in the Eastern Conference. Metropolitan teams like the Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, and New York Rangers are loaded with firepower, and the Islanders simply don’t have the weapons to match that level of competition.

Another concern is the uncertainty surrounding Sorokin. While he has been a Vezina-caliber goaltender in the past, his struggles at the end of last season raise questions about whether he can reclaim his role as the undisputed starter. If Sorokin falters, and Varlamov can’t maintain his late-season form, the Islanders could find themselves with a goaltending crisis on their hands.

Moreover, the failure of Lou Lamoriello to address these issues in the offseason also casts doubt on the team’s ability to succeed. While other teams made significant upgrades, the Islanders largely stood still, primarily only adding Duclair and Tsyplakov, leaving them vulnerable in a division that demands serious improvement just to keep pace. Without the necessary roster upgrades, the Islanders risk being overtaken by teams that have improved both offensively and defensively.

Future Outlook

While the present may not look particularly bright for the Islanders, their future holds promise, thanks to a growing pool of young talent. Top prospect Cole Eiserman has the potential to be a game-changer with his elite goal-scoring ability. Though unlikely to make a significant impact for a few seasons, Eiserman could quickly rise to become one of the franchise’s cornerstones in the coming years.

Other forward prospects such as Kamil Bednarik, William Dufour, and Danny Nelson are also worth keeping an eye on. Each brings a unique skill set that could bolster the Islanders forward depth in the near future. On defense, Isaiah George is a prospect to watch, as he develops into a reliable blueliner who could add more mobility to the Islanders backend.

While these prospects offer hope, they are still a few years away from making a significant impact. In the meantime, the Islanders will need to navigate the growing pains of their current roster, hoping that their youth movement can eventually lead to sustained success.

Final Thoughts

The New York Islanders face an uphill battle this season. Projected to finish 20th in the league, they are likely to miss the playoffs unless several things go right, including a resurgence from Ilya Sorokin and a seamless adaptation to Patrick Roy’s new system for the entire season. The lack of forward depth and Lou Lamoriello’s passive offseason have left the team vulnerable in a competitive Eastern Conference, where the margin for error is slim.

However, the Islanders long-term outlook is more promising, with a talented group of prospects waiting in the wings and money coming off the books. While this season may not yield immediate results, the foundation is being laid for a more successful future. For now, the Islanders will need to defy expectations if they hope to contend in a conference full of elite teams.