Season Preview – 17. Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins are at a pivotal juncture heading into the 2024-25 season. After missing the playoffs last year and projected to finish 17th in the league this season, they remain caught between two identities—an aging core that wants to contend and a franchise in need of a fresh direction. Led by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Erik Karlsson, the Penguins are aiming to make one last push for the postseason. But with a shallow forward scoring depth, inconsistent goaltending, and power play struggles, the team will need everything to break right if they are to exceed expectations and sneak into the playoffs.

Season Expectations

The Penguins season begins with tempered optimism but an air of realism. While the core of Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Karlsson remains elite, age is no longer on their side. Crosby, at 37, continues to defy time, but even his otherworldly talent needs help from the supporting cast to avoid being burdened with the entire offensive load. Malkin showed flashes of brilliance last year, yet consistency, speed, and health remain concerns for the 38-year-old center. Letang, at 37, has maintained a strong two-way presence, but the wear and tear of logging heavy minutes over the years has left him vulnerable to injuries. The addition of Karlsson last year, fresh off a 101-point season with the San Jose Sharks, injected dynamism into the Penguins blue line, but did not seem to work the way General Manager Kyle Dubas intended.

Once again this season, there are more questions than answers when it comes to the entire roster. Their defense will need to find more efficiency 5on5 and will need to find ways to insulate the burden of goaltender Tristan Jarry. The Penguins lack of scoring depth, compounded by an aging roster, puts them in a precarious position. They are projected to just miss the playoffs again, though their fate could be determined by their ability to stay healthy and find consistent contributions from their younger players and bottom-six forwards.

Projected Lines

The Penguins success this season will rely heavily on striking the right balance across their lines. The top unit will need to continue driving the offense, but sustainable success hinges on getting consistent production from the middle six, where younger, emerging talent must complement the veteran presence. The bottom six, traditionally tasked with defensive reliability, will need to chip in offensively to ease the burden on the star players. The defense must maintain a solid mix of offensive creativity and shutdown stability, while the goaltending will need to remain steady under the pressure of a team in transition. A well-rounded effort from all units is crucial for the Penguins to stay competitive throughout the season.

To clarify, these line projections are meant to only predict the start of the season. With so many potential combinations possible, its almost certain that there are tweaks and additions of new faces by the end of the year. Expect the season to start as such:

Drew O’Connor – Sindey Crosby – Byran Rust
Michael Bunting – Evgeni Malkin – Rickard Rakell
Anthony Beauvillier – Kevin Hayes – Cody Glass
Blake Lizotte – Lars Eller – Noel Acciari

Marcus Pettersson – Erik Karlsson
Ryan Graves – Kris Letang
Matt Grzelcyk – John Ludvig

Tristan Jarry
Alex Nedeljkovic

Scratches: Jesse Puljujarvi, Emil Bemstrom, Sebastian Aho

Line 1
After Crosby had a tremendous season last year, even with the loss of Jake Guentzel, he was able to find some consistent chemistry on this line. Last season, this line only played a total of 190.6 minutes together, but were able to produce a 54.3% xGoals For with a net 0.63 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. While Crosby was the main driving force for the entire team, it is easy to insinuate that he will have success with whoever plays on his wings. O’Connor proved he is a capable NHL player last year scoring 16 goals in 79 games, and will look to add to that total with a possible full year playing in an elevated role. Rust on the other hand is a cagey vet, who final looks healthy after missing 20 games last year. He still managed to put up 28 goals and 56 points in only 62 games. This line will be tasked with carrying the offensive load, and if they are able to build off the chemistry they found last year, this could be a much needed success story for the Penguins.

Line 2
When the Guentzel trade was done, fans around the NHL leant towards the idea that Bunting being a key piece was a poor return for the Penguins. However, as soon as he started playing for the Penguins, his impact was immediate as he added a touch of sandpaper grit and scoring touch that the Penguins have been lacking. Last season this line played a total of 193 minutes together, producing a 60% xGoals %, which was first on the Penguins with a minimum 100 minutes played. They also were able to post an outstanding net 1.15 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which is elite for any second line in the league. Malkin seemed to work well having Bunting fly into corners and retrieve the puck for his playmaking abilities. Rakell on the other hand, was able to start producing again, after playing most of the season below expectations and his cap hit. If this line can handle secondary scoring on a regular basis, the Penguins will be in a good spot.

Line 3
This is where things start to get interesting. With so many new faces added throughout the offseason, it is certain the head coach Mike Sullivan will be mixing and matching to find the best chemistry and effectiveness to create a balanced line up he can rely on. Having a third line that can play a strong two-way style of play, with regular contributions to offense is critical for this team. Beauvillier is capable of moving up and down the lineup and may even find himself on the wing of Crosby at some point during the season, due to his offensive IQ. Hayes will need to have a rebound season, and no place better to do it then on the third line behind Crosby and Malkin. Glass has never been able to meet expectations of being the 6th overall pick in the 2017 Draft. This could be his last kick at the can to prove he can be relied on in a middle-six role, and utilize his playmaking vision to be an effective powerplay producer.

Line 4
With so many forwards in the system capable of filling out a fourth line role, we most certainly have to look at experience and effectiveness in those roles when we project who will start there. Lizotte was a sneaky signing this offseason, due to his compete level, playmaking abilities, and underrated speed. He can be a massive component for a consistent cycle or dump and chase style that may be suited for this line. Eller will likely bounce between third and fourth line roles, but in order to get Hayes a chance of finding a rhythm, it would be wise to have Eller on the fourth line, where he will play a more defensive structure to his advantage. Acciari is a wrecking ball that will hit anything in sight and block a shot with his face if possible. Having that sort of worth ethic and character in the line up is not only healthy for the locker room, but also crucial for a well organized penalty kill.

Pair 1
This pairing was the most utilized by the Penguins last year. They played a total of 858.2 minutes in 76 games, producing a reasonable 54.7% xGoals % and a net 0.55 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. Karlsson has a down year in his first season as a Penguin. After posting 101 points with the San Jose Sharks the year before, Karlsson managed to only put up 56 points, which is a 45 point drop off. If the Penguins are to be successful this year, they will need Karlsson to play better and quarterback the powerplay effectively. Pettersson seemed to be a decent partner with Karlsson. The Swedish duo looked comfortable playing high stake roles, and joining the rush at ket momemts. Pettersson’s defensive-first mentality compliments Karlsson’s offensive instincts well, and another year together should yield positive results.

Pair 2
Coming off the prior season of missing time due to injury, Letang was able to stay healthy the entire year and have an underrated campaign with 51 points in 82 games. Graves had a more difficult season in his first year as a Penguin, but was able to find some stability with Letang as his partner. This duo played 57 games together, posting a 50.5% xGoals % and a net 0.06 xGoals For per 60 Minutes, which is just okay for a second tier pairing in the league. While they may not have the most jaw dropping analytics as a pair, they provide the coaching staff with a more two-way, defensive pairing that can shutdown opposing teams top matchups. They will look to build off last years stability and become a reliable pair throughout the season.

Pair 3
There is likely to be a revolving door on the third pairing this season with productive play being the deciding factor of who gets to stay in the lineup each night. The difficult factor about this pair is the fact that Ludwig will be the biggest body to play in the role, standings at 6’1″ and 213lbs. Grzelcyk is only 5’10” and 180lbs, which is relatively small for a more shutdown role that the third pairing is required to take on. However, one this is for certain, Grzelcyk can move the puck and provide an option on the rush, which could overwhelm opposing teams if all three pairings have that element. Ludwig slots in over Aho simply due to his frame and ability to shelter Grezelcyk when he utilizes his tools for an offesnive breakout. We will see different players forming chemistry with eachother as the season progresses, only time will tell who will be left standing at the end of the year.

Goalies
Before last season began, Jarry was rewarded with a healthy five-year, $26.875 million extension making him the defacto starter for the Penguins. Yet, his inconsistencies as the season went on proved to be too much of a liability and backup Nedeljkovic found some success, but there were too many points left on the ice that ultimately led to the Penguins missing the playoffs by 3 points. This season both goalies will need to find a reliable form to create some trust and reliance for the Penguins to have a fighting chance. With sharing a more tandem role this year, Jarry can be insulated and focus on being more effective when he does start, and Nedeljkovic can give a steady backup presence when he is called upon.

Scratches
The Penguins have a major issue when it comes to scoring depth, yet they have a plethora of forwards that can rotate in middle and bottom-six roles when a change is needed or injuries force a substitution. Puljujarvi has never been able to find consistent success at the NHL level and will look to grab a foothold in the bottom-six as the season takes shape. Bemstrom is a solid two-way type that can score when slotted into the role. The Penguins also have the luxury of Rutger McGroarty and Valterri Puustinen who can provide a different look, and more offensively focused lineup. Aho has the opportunity to become a regular on the third pairing, or possibly higher when injuries occur. He has shown flashes of reliable two-way play that was paramount to the New York Islanders success last year. However, seeing that he has the same type of frame as Grzelcyk, it would be unwise to play smaller defensemen together in a third pairing role.

Keys to Success

For the Penguins to have any hope of exceeding expectations, they will need Jarry to be exceptional. Jarry’s inconsistencies last season were a major reason the Penguins failed to make the playoffs, but if he can rebound and perform at an elite level, Pittsburgh’s postseason chances rise significantly. The defensive unit, led by Letang and Karlsson, will be tasked with generating offense from the blue line, but they must also improve their overall defensive structure to take pressure off Jarry.

Crosby will once again be the driving force, but the team cannot afford to have him shoulder the entire burden of scoring. Forwards like Michael Bunting and Bryan Rust will need to elevate their play, while role players like Rickard Rakell, Drew O’Connor, and Kevin Hayes, will have to produce secondary scoring. Newly acquired rookie Rutger McGroarty, acquired in a trade for Brayden Yager, could be an X-factor. His energy, skill, and potential to contribute in the middle six could ease the load on the veteran forwards.

Special teams will be crucial. The Penguins power play was abysmal last season, finishing with a dismal 15.3% conversion rate. The Penguins will look to revitalize the man advantage, but it will require better puck movement and finishing. A more effective power play could be the difference between missing the playoffs and sneaking in.

Potential Downfall

The most glaring threat to the Penguins success this season is their aging core. While Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Karlsson are still elite players, they are all in their late 30s and susceptible to injuries. Any significant injury to one of these key pieces could derail the Penguins playoff hopes.

Scoring depth is another major concern. Beyond Crosby and Malkin, the Penguins forward group lacks the firepower to compete with deeper, younger teams in the Eastern Conference. If players like Bunting or Rakell don’t step up, or if the bottom six fails to contribute, Pittsburgh could struggle mightily to score.

Goaltending is another potential issue. Jarry has shown flashes of brilliance but has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career. If he cannot find the form required to backstop a team that is already defensively vulnerable, the Penguins could find themselves slipping in the standings. Additionally, the Penguins power play must improve. A repeat of last year’s struggles with the man advantage could lead to another disappointing season.

Future Outlook

The Penguins future is a mix of uncertainty and cautious optimism. With their aging core still leading the charge, they are at a crossroads. If the team makes the playoffs, it might push the front office to extend the window for one more Cup run. However, another disappointing season could force General Manager Kyle Dubas to start shifting the focus toward a rebuild.

While Pittsburgh’s core is aging, the pipeline does feature promising prospects who could shape the future of the franchise. Forwards like Tristan Broz, Tanner Howe, and Ville Koivunen bring offensive potential and creativity, while Cruz Lucius adds a dynamic scoring touch that could one day help alleviate the load on players like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. On defense, Owen Pickering, the Penguins’ first-round pick in 2022, is a big, mobile defenseman with top-four potential, while Harrison Brunicke brings raw defensive tools that could be honed into a steady presence on the blue line.

Goaltending is an area of intrigue for the Penguins. While Tristan Jarry holds the starting job, the organization has high hopes for prospects Joel Blomqvist and Sergey Murashov. Both young netminders have shown considerable upside and could eventually compete for NHL roles, especially if Jarry’s inconsistencies continue.

The development of these prospects will be critical in determining how quickly Pittsburgh can transition from a team relying on an aging core to one driven by young talent. If players like Broz, Howe, or Pickering can make an impact in the coming years, the Penguins might avoid a lengthy rebuild. For now, though, the organization finds itself straddling two worlds—hoping to remain competitive while quietly preparing for life after Crosby, Malkin, and Letang.

Final Thoughts

The 2024-25 season is pivotal for the Pittsburgh Penguins. With an aging core, a team projected to just miss the playoffs, and uncertainty surrounding their long-term direction, this season could serve as a last chance for one final push. Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Karlsson still have the talent to lead the Penguins into the postseason, but they will need help from their supporting cast, strong goaltending from Jarry, and significant improvement on special teams to do so.

It’s a delicate balancing act for the Penguins. A strong season could delay the inevitable rebuild, while another year outside the playoffs may force the franchise to embrace a new direction. One thing is certain, with a team in transition, the Penguins future hangs in the balance.