Season Preview – 13. Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning are heading into the 2024-25 season with a mix of optimism and uncertainty as they aim to extend their playoff streak to eight consecutive seasons. Projected to finish 13th in the league, the Lightning have made bold moves this offseason, most notably letting go of former captain Steven Stamkos in free agency. Stamkos, a franchise legend and face of the team for over a decade, has left a significant hole in the locker room. In his place, the Lightning signed Jake Guentzel, a dynamic offensive winger known for his ability to score in clutch moments. Another significant change came on the blue line, as the team traded defenseman Mikhail Sergachev to Utah in exchange for forward prospect Conor Geekie and defenseman J.J. Moser, a move aimed at injecting youth into the roster. Additionally, Tampa brought back veteran defenseman Ryan McDonagh to stabilize a defense in flux. With Victor Hedman assuming the captaincy, the season is set to test Tampa Bay’s ability to navigate a transitional phase while still pushing for another deep playoff run.

Season Expectations

Expectations for the Lightning are high, but they come with several question marks. The loss of Steven Stamkos is monumental. As the franchise’s heart and soul, Stamkos contributed not only with his scoring but with his leadership, guiding Tampa to two Stanley Cups and countless deep playoff runs. His departure marks the end of an era, and replacing his impact will not be easy. However, the Lightning’s front office made a strong statement by bringing in Jake Guentzel, who will be tasked with replacing Stamkos’ offensive output. Guentzel’s experience and playoff pedigree, honed during his years with the Pittsburgh Penguins, should complement Kucherov and Point nicely on the top line.

The departure of Sergachev on defense also raised eyebrows, though the return of McDonagh should help ease the transition. McDonagh brings veteran leadership and a steady defensive presence, something the Lightning will need as they navigate this retooled blue line. However, much will depend on whether younger players like J.J. Moser can step up and whether the newly acquired Conor Geekie can contribute offensively in his first full NHL season.

Despite these roster changes, Tampa Bay remains a team that expects to be in the playoff mix. With a core of elite talent still intact, they are projected to finish 13th in the league and once again contend for a playoff spot. However, the team’s success will likely depend on whether they can adjust to life without Stamkos and find production from some unexpected sources in a season where depth will be tested.

Projected Lines

The Lightning’s projected lines for the upcoming season highlight a top-heavy roster, with elite talent driving the offense but noticeable gaps in depth, especially in the bottom six. While the top line is expected to deliver strong production, there is a significant drop off in proven scoring ability further down the lineup. Secondary scoring could be a concern if key players on the top lines are unable to shoulder the load for an entire season. The forward group is thin beyond the main stars, leaving questions about whether the supporting cast can consistently contribute. This lack of depth could become a critical issue, especially if injuries or slumps impact the team’s top performers.

To clarify, these line projections are meant to only predict the start of the season. With so many potential combinations possible, its almost certain that there are tweaks and additions of new faces by the end of the year. Expect the season to start as such:

Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Nick Paul
Michael Eyssimont – Conor Geekie – Cam Atkinson
Conor Sheary – Zemgus Girgensons – Mitchell Chaffee

Victor Hedman – J.J. Moser
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Darren Raddysh – Nick Perbix

Andrei Vasilevskiy
Jonas Johansson

Scratches: Luke Glendening, Emil Lilleberg

Line 1
The biggest difference this year will be the void of Stamkos on LW1 and replaced by Guentzel. This line theoretically should succeed purely based on the elite skill of all three players. However, one slight change could make all the difference, and that is the fact that Guentzel is a left handed shot compared to Stamkos being right handed. Since Kucherov is extremely effective playing his off wing, there might be some growing pains as their is an adjustment that takes away the cross ice off-side one timer that Stamkos owned for over a decade. Yet, Guentzel is a proven finisher who steps up in big moments, and should be able to find chemistry as the line settles in. Centering this line is Point who is one of the most underrated centermen in the league. In 580 career games, he has been able to post 264 goals and 553 points. His speed, offensive IQ, and elite positioning allows this line to take chances and push for offense every time they step on the ice. Not much has to be said about Kucherov considering he is a top 5 player in the entire league. Last season, he took home the Art Ross Trophy for the most points scored in the league with 144, and was a finalist for the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award. While it may be difficult to produce these exact results consistently, if anyone is capable of doing this, it is Kucherov.

Line 2
Last year, this line had limited ice-time together but still found a way to be effective. They played 25 games for a total of 135.5 minutes, while producing a 54.4% xGoals For % and a net 0.45 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which is all a coach can ask from a secondary scoring line. Hagel has found his stride in Tampa Bay and has also found a mean streak that is driven from his outstanding competitiveness. He will be asked to step up more offensively and has all the right tools to do so. Cirelli is a strong two-way centerman that can be reliably tasked on shutting down opponents top players. His commitment to defense and acute offensive awareness makes him a crucial part of the Lightnings success. Paul will need to take an elevated role this season, at least for the start. He is well aware of how to utilize his big frame and create turnovers and havoc in front of the oppositions net. While he may not have the offensive abilities that both Hagel and Cirelli posses, he can use his puck retrieval strength to win board battles and create offensive opportunities out of broken plays.

Line 3
This is where the scoring depth of the Lightning will be tested. There are a lot of questions surrounding whether or not all three players can contribute to both ends of the ice, yet given how head coach John Cooper is able to get the most out of his players, they should adjust fine and even be able to add to the score sheet. Eyssimont is a quick two-way minded winger who has earned every shift he has played in the NHL. While he may be better suited for a fourth line role, the lack of options leaves him ready to take a third line opportunity and run with it. Geekie has all the intangibles to be a heavy power forward type centerman as he enters his first year in the league. His size, passion, and compete level have earned him a spot in the opening season lineups, and he will do everything in his power to anchor a third line into the post-season. Atkinson finally gets a chance to play for a team with an established winning culture. He is small, but that has never stopped him during his career where he has consistently contributed offensively and has played elevated roles throughout his career. If Atkinson can remain healthy, his veteran presence and willingness to win, will help alleviate the leadership pressures left by the loss of Stamkos.

Line 4
The Lightning have established a culture where nothing is given and everything is earned. This fourth line will have to earn their spot as the season progresses and gain head coach Cooper’s trust as a reliable and energizing line he can use to his advantage. Sheary has a playmaking ability that is better suited for a larger role, but it seems as though he has been passed in the depth charts by players like Eyssimont and Atkinson. He has the tools to step up if need be, but will have to focus on providing a steady two-way game if he wants to play every game. Girgensons is a better winger than centerman, yet he is still effective in his role on if he plays on a fourth line. He can be a penalty specialist and even be used in situations when a lead needs to be maintained. Chaffee still has yet to prove he is a full time NHL player, but this year could be the chance he has been waiting for. Last year, he played 30 games and put up 4 goals and 7 points playing in all different types of situations. If he is able to earn his spot full time, he has the speed and tenacity to become a long-term solution for the bottom-six.

Pair 1
With the loss of Sergachev to Utah in the summer, Hedman will have to guide Moser into a top pairing role for the defensive pairings to remain fully balanced. Hedman is still a workhorse of a defenseman, able to play every situation and chew up heavy minutes throughout a long regular season and playoffs. While he may have lost a step or two, he is still very effective in every zone on the ice, and his new found “C” will have him leading by example as he has always done. Moser on the other hand, is still relatively new to the NHL with only 205 career NHL games. Yet, most front office staff will say that it takes roughly 200 NHL games for a defenseman to find his stride at the elite level. Moser is right over the cusp, and has shown he as a keen puck moving ability and defensive responsibility that can translate into a steady top-four role for the Lighting for years to come. This pair will need to provide offense and generate rushed in order for Tampe Bay to make any headway in the standings.

Pair 2
The return of McDonagh in the offseason was something that was unexpected by fans across the league, yet it makes so much sense for the Lighting to bring back a player that was a stalwart to their Stanley Cup wins. Both players are familiar with eachother as a pair, and if we look back to the 2021-22 season, we can see evidence in their shutdown potential. That season, the pair was together for 436.7 minutes and produced a 50.6% xGoals For % and a net 0.05 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which highlights their commitment to defense over offense. McDonagh is now 35 years old, but brings his wealth of experience and poise back to a blueline that needs it. He has found more of a stay-at-home role the last few seasons, and should seamlessly transition that style this year. Cernak is a massive hard nose defenseman who eats pucks at will, and can clear his own crease with ease. Health is his most significant concern, considering he has never played a full 82 game season in his six year career. This pair has the influence to make or break games for the Lightning as the season progresses.

Pair 3
The Lightning at least have decisions to make when it comes to their third pairings. The easiest decision is to pair up Perbix and Raddysh who saw success as a limited pair last year. They only played 31 games together for a total of 41.5 minutes, but were extremely effective for the time being. They were able to generate an impressive 56.4% xGoals For % along with a 0.72 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which is impressive for a third pairing across the league. Raddysh found his stride two years ago against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the postseason, and has become an offensive contributor on the back end, which is something the Lighting have lacked behind Hedman. Raddysh played his first full season last year and was able to post 33 points in 82 games, proving he is capable of contributing consistently. He can play on his off side and provide a heavy shot from the point on the power play or simply in the offensive zone. Perbix is more focused on a two-way style of play, where his ranginess is a tool that can shut down opponents on a nightly basis. He also has the potential to move up and down the pairings if injuries occur or a different look is needed.

Goalies
Vasilevskiy is still rightly considered one of the top goaltenders in the league, even after a tough season last year. He dealt with injury but was still able to post 30 wins in 52 games, thanks to the play of his team in front of him. However, Vasilevskiy will need to rebound this season due to the concerns of scoring depth upfront and questions surrounding Moser’s effectiveness as a top pairing defenseman. Vaslilevskiy had a major drop from 25.3 Goals Saved Above Expected in 2022-23 season, to an abysmal -2.5 Goals Saved Above Expected last year. Nevertheless, Vasilevskiy drop in production can be excused as a one time occurrence due to how impressive his career resume has been, and there is no doubt he can lock in at the right moments and long stretches if he remains healthy. Johansson is a backup option that can take a few games off of Vaslievskiy whenever he needs to rest. Yet, it would be foolish to put any workload over 20 games for Johansson if the Lighting want to win a considerable amount of games. The backup role may be an area of weakness that management will look to upgrade before the trade deadline.

Scratches
Glendening is currently dealing with a day-to-day injury that has left him out of our projected lineups for the season. If he is to recover fully, we could definitely see him establish himself back as the fourth line center due to his acute defensive IQ and penalty killing abilities. Lilleberg is still carving his way into an NHL role at 23 years old, but showed last year he can be a capable 7th defenseman worth carrying on the roster. He is a heavy hitter and a rough and tough type defender, and may have a future on this defensive core as they age out. Regardless, he gives the Lightning solid depth if injuries occur or matchups need to be adjusted.

Keys to Success

For the Lightning to achieve success this season, they will need several things to fall into place. First and foremost, Vasilevskiy’s performance in goal will be paramount. Vasilevskiy has been the backbone of this team during their recent run of success, and a return to form from him could elevate Tampa Bay from a fringe playoff team to a legitimate contender. Last season, Vasilevskiy struggled with consistency and staying healthy, leading to questions about whether the heavy workload of recent years has taken a toll on his game. If he can regain his Vezina Trophy level play, the Lightning’s defensive concerns will be mitigated.

Offensively, the top line will need to carry a significant load. With Guentzel stepping into Stamkos’ former role, there will be a lot of pressure on the chemistry between Guentzel, Kucherov, and Point. Guentzel’s ability to produce alongside two of the league’s top playmakers will be critical in determining whether Tampa Bay can still generate elite offense despite losing one of its greatest all-time scorers. Kucherov and Point, both perennial All-Stars, will be expected to maintain their elite production while elevating the play of their new linemate.

Beyond the top line, Tampa Bay will need contributions from its secondary forwards like Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli. These players have been reliable in secondary scoring roles but will need to do more this season to cover for the team’s lack of forward depth. Hagel in particular, will be asked to provide more leadership and offense in Stamkos’ absence. Meanwhile, Cirelli’s two-way play and ability to contribute in key moments will be vital to the team’s overall balance.

Defensively, Victor Hedman’s leadership will be crucial. Now the team’s captain, Hedman must step into the leadership void left by Stamkos while also continuing to be a dominant presence on the ice. McDonagh’s return will provide stability and experience, but the Lightning will need young players like Moser and Nick Perbix to handle larger roles if they are going to succeed. The development of these younger defensemen will go a long way toward determining how effective Tampa’s blue line can be this season.

Potential Downfall

While the Lightning have a core of elite talent, there are several potential downfalls that could derail their season. The most glaring concern is their lack of forward depth. With Stamkos gone and Guentzel essentially replacing him on the top line, the secondary scoring behind Kucherov, Point, and Guentzel remains thin. If any of those top forwards were to suffer an injury or hit a rough patch, Tampa Bay could struggle to generate offense. Players like Hagel and Cirelli have been solid, but they alone may not be enough to cover for the lack of depth on the bottom six. If the secondary scoring doesn’t materialize, it could leave the Lightning vulnerable in key moments throughout the season.

Another potential downfall is the blue line, specifically the loss of Sergachev. While the Lightning brought back McDonagh to fill the veteran role, Sergachev’s two-way play and ability to generate offense from the back end will be missed. The team is banking on J.J. Moser to step into Sergachev’s void, but if Moser can’t meet that expectations, the defense could become a weakness, especially in high-pressure situations against elite offenses.

Perhaps the biggest X-factor is Andrei Vasilevskiy. If Vasilevskiy struggles or fails to return to form, Tampa Bay’s entire season could be in jeopardy. The team has leaned heavily on his goaltending in recent years, and if he falters or deals with injuries again, the defense could find itself overwhelmed, particularly without a solid backup plan in net.

Future Outlook

The future of the Lightning presents both opportunities and challenges as the team navigates a transitional phase. One of the most promising pieces of their future is Geekie, their top prospect acquired in the Sergachev trade. Geekie is expected to contribute full-time at the NHL level this year, providing much-needed forward depth and potential offensive spark. His development will be closely watched, as he could become a key player in Tampa’s lineup for years to come.

Beyond Geekie, the Lightning do have a few other intriguing prospects, including Isaac Howard, Niko Huuhtanen, and Ethan Gauthier. These young forwards are developing in the system and could eventually play important roles, though they may still be a year or two away from making a full-time impact. In net, Hugo Alnefelt stands out as a potential future starter, offering hope for a smooth transition in goal whenever Andrei Vasilevsky’s prime begins to fade.

However, the Lightning’s prospect pool is relatively shallow compared to other teams, largely due to years of trading away high draft picks in pursuit of immediate success. Their lack of standout prospects beyond this core group is a consequence of their sustained playoff runs, where acquiring veteran talent took priority over building through the draft. While Tampa’s current top prospects show promise, the team will eventually need to restock its pipeline to sustain long-term success.

Final Thoughts

The 2024-25 season marks the start of a new era for the Tampa Bay Lightning. With Steven Stamkos gone and Victor Hedman now wearing the captain’s “C,” the team will have to rely on its remaining core of elite talent to continue its run of success. The addition of Jake Guentzel and the return of Ryan McDonagh bring new elements to the roster, but questions about depth and defensive stability remain. Much of the team’s success will depend on Andrei Vasilevskiy’s ability to return to form and whether the top line can carry the offense.

The Lightning are still projected to make the playoffs, but they will face stiff competition in the Eastern Conference. If their stars can stay healthy and produce at a high level, Tampa Bay could make another deep playoff run. However, any missteps whether from injuries, goaltending issues, or a lack of depth, could lead to an earlier exit than expected. Regardless, this season will be a fascinating test of whether the Lightning can adapt and thrive in the post-Stamkos era.