Season Preview – 16. Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota Wild enter the 2024-25 NHL season with optimism, projected to finish 16th in the league and sneak into the playoffs. Under head coach John Hynes, the team has embraced a system that proved effective after he took over last season, as the Wild were on pace for 44 wins in an 82-game schedule. With the return of captain Jared Spurgeon and significant strides expected from young stars like Marco Rossi and Brock Faber, Minnesota is well-positioned to compete. The presence of Kirill Kaprizov gives the Wild a game-breaking talent, and the goaltending tandem of Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury remains solid. However, for the team to truly excel, a substantial improvement on the penalty kill will be critical.

Season Expectations

The Wild are expected to battle for a playoff spot this season, aiming to finish in the middle of the pack. While they aren’t considered one of the NHL’s powerhouses, they have the tools to be a dangerous postseason team. John Hynes system, which helped turn the team’s performance around last year, provides a structure the Wild can build upon. If the team stays healthy and key players like Kaprizov, Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, and Mats Zuccarello perform to their abilities, they could outplay their 16th-place prediction.

The development of young talents like Marco Rossi and Brock Faber is expected to further push the team. Rossi has the potential to be a legitimate top-six center, while Faber looks ready to take on greater defensive responsibilities after a strong rookie showing. Add in a fully healthy Spurgeon to stabilize the blueline, and the Wild can compete with anyone on any given night. The expectations are clear: grind out wins, improve defensively, and find a way to sneak into the playoffs.

Projected Lines

Under head coach John Hynes, the Wild’s lineup has found a sense of cohesion and balance. Since taking over last season, Hynes has implemented a structured, disciplined system that emphasizes defensive responsibility while still allowing offensive creativity. His approach has optimized line combinations, ensuring all four lines contribute effectively at both ends of the ice. The team’s depth has flourished under Hynes guidance, with each player knowing their role and executing within the system. This well-rounded structure has made the Wild tough to play against, ensuring their projected lines remain effective throughout the season.

To clarify, these line projections are meant to only predict the start of the season. With so many potential combinations possible, its almost certain that there are tweaks and additions of new faces by the end of the year. Expect the season to start as such:

Matt Boldy – Joel Eriksson Ek – Kirill Kaprizov
Mats Zuccarello – Marco Rossi – Ryan Hartman
Marcus Foligno – Yakov Trenin – Marcus Johansson
Jakub Lauko – Frederik Gaudreau – Marat Khusnutdinov

Jonas Brodin – Brock Faber
Jacob Middleton – Jared Spurgeon
Declan Chisholm – Zach Bogosian

Filip Gustavsson
Marc-Andre Fleury

Scratches: Reese Johnson, Jon Merrill

Line 1
This line played the most minutes together out of every forward line last season, providing a trusted matchup that the coaching staff could rely on. Overall, they played a total of 374.9 minutes in 49 games together, producing an impressive 62.9% xGoals % and am outstanding net 1.49 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. Boldy was able to step into a top line role and put up his highest point totals of his young career with 69 points in 75 games. He will look to develop his power forward style more and become a force to be reckoned with, along with finding a consistent goal scoring touch. Eriksson Ek could be defined as one of the more underrated forwards in the league that deserves recognition as being elite. He is more than capable of centering the top line, and has a steady two-way skill set that compliments the offensive minds of both Boldy and Kaprizov, while also providing a shutdown presence for opposing teams top lines. Kaprizov is one of the best wingers in the NHL and has produced on average 97 points and 47 goals per season since joining the Wild. He will look to add to the new found chemistry with Boldy and Eriksson Ek, and this line could be lethal as they were last year.

Line 2
In order for the Wild to have success this season and sneak into a playoff spot, this second line will need to produce at a high rate to catalyze the Wild’s offensive output. Last year this line saw limited action together but proved to be effective in the short trial. In total, they only played 64.3 minutes together in 9 games, yet were able to post a 65.9% xGoals % and a net 1.21 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which shows they were nearly effective as the first line in the limited sample size. Zuccarello has found a groove in Minnesota, and his speed, playmaking IQ, and veteran leadership is a stalwart for the Wild’s offense when it is firing on all cylinders. Rossi’s young career has been hampered by lingering ailments that stunted his development and have limited him to only 217 professional games at both the AHL in NHL level in the last four years. That roughly translates to only 54 games each year, which is difficult for any young player to mature and transition into an elite talent. Last year though, Rossi was able to stay healthy and saw his first 82 game season in the NHL, where he posted 21 goals and 40 points, showing he is more than capable of being a top-six contributor. Hartman brings a gritty two-way game that can compliment the speed and skill of Rossi and Zuccarello on the second line. His willingness to drive the net, fight for pucks, and add to the cycle, makes his primed for a top-six role.

Line 3
Usually third lines in the league are meant to maintain a balance of defensive structure, physicality, and scoring touch, which is exactly what this line will be capable of. Foligno is a veteran leader that leads by example with his work ethic and commitment to taking the body on every play he can. He has slowed down offensively, but with the addition of Trenin as his centerman, and Johansson on his wing, he can bring his physical play style to help contribute in his own way. Trenin signed with the Wild this offseason for four-years, $14.0 million contract, which illustrates how much General Manager Bill Guerin wanted him on the team. His defensive-first skill set is a perfect fit as a specialist for a struggling penalty kill, and his ability to shut down top-tier players will be utilized. Johansson is a water bug type that can play high in the line up or middle-six, which is where he can be most effective. He will be able to carry this lines offensive balance, while also being skilled enough to play defensively when relied on to do so.

Line 4
To maintain the balance of two-way play that head coach Hyne’s system requires, the fourth line must be able to contribute on both ends of the ice, and supply energy at all times. Lauko is a high energy player who has wheels that can tire out opponents, or simply create a rush out of nowhere. Gaudreau is extremely solid for a fourth line center, and if called upon, can slot into a middle-six role seamlessly. Khusnutdinov showed some promise last season after joining the Wild at the end of the year. He only played 16 games and put up 4 points, but he has a higher ceiling and there is a level of difficulty and transition that is present for all international players that jump into the NHL right away. Look for Khusnutdinov to take a step this year, and possibly work his way into a higher role depending on the coaching staffs trust and his own play.

Pair 1
One of the better stories of last season was seeing the breakout play of Faber, who almost earned himself the Calder trophy from phenom Connor Bedard. Early last year, Faber was called upon to step up in the absence of captain Spurgeon and delivered that and more. This pair was together for 60 games and a total of 562.1 minutes while posting a 52% xGoals % and a net 0.09 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. While the analytics do not show the entire effectiveness, they are sure to amplify this season after chemistry and less of a burden on the top pairing. Brodin has been an extremely steady two-way defenseman in his career, and his veteran presence is a calming force and developmental catalyst for the young Faber. Together, these two should be able to eat as many minutes as head coach Hyne’s allocates to them, while also finding important roles on special teams.

Pair 2
With a fully healthy Spurgeon set to return to the Wild this season, he stabilizes the top-four pairings with elite two-way play, leadership, and puck moving abilities. Last season, this pairing was subject to only 16 games played and 155.4 minutes together, due to the long term absence of Spurgeon. They managed to produce an excellent 61.5% xGoals % and a net 1.09 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which proved to be more efficient than the first pair. Middleton has shown he is primarily a stay-at-home defenseman that matches well with Spurgeon. His defensive-first mindset allows Spurgeon to lead a rush, skate deep into an offensive zone, or make risky plays that can reap significant breaks for the Wild. With this pairing slotted to be behind the first duo, there is finally some security in the top-four that the Wild have been missing for sometime.

Pair 3
As far as third pairings go, they want to be focused more on the defensive side of the puck, and contribute enough offensively to not be a liability when their skilled forward teammates are on the ice. This pairing can do just that. Like the 2nd pairing mixture of a puck moving defenseman complimented by a defensive-first defenseman, we can see why this pair will work. Last season this pair was only together for a limited 65.6 minutes together, yet still managed to post a 59.2% xGoals % and a 0.82 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which is exactly what you need from a third pairing. Chisholm has shown he can create offense and even has a lethal shot from the point that can create chaos. Bogosian is a savvy vet that has all the tools to provide toughness, shot blocking, and big time hits which can create swings in momentum. Together they should see a full season together, with Merrill slotting in when matchups get tougher for an inexperienced Chisholm.

Goalies
The Wild goalies were one of the problems last year, even though you can attribute their underlying numbers to a carrousel on defense and a new system being implemented throughout the team. Gustavsson has shown he is capable of being a solid 1A starter in the league, posting 22 wins, a 2.10 goals against average, and a 0.931% save percentage in his first season as a Wild. However he struggled last year, producing an unimpressive -4.8 Goals Saved Above Expected, and a sub 0.900% save percentage, which no winning team can rely on for sustained success. Fleury on the other hand had an even worse season than Gustavsson. He has an atrocious -11.1 Goals Saved Above Expected, which ranked him 5th last in the entire league for goaltenders. It is clear that both players will need to have bounce back seasons, and in Fleury’s last dance, there is faith that both can return to form.

Scratches
Johnson is a fourth line type of player that can provide a boost of energy and even contribute on a penalty kill if he is needed to. He has always been a fringe type, but he does have value when it comes to his work ethic and locker room qualities, he will be an underrated personality that will help the team as much as he can. Merrill is another defensive-first defenseman on this Wild roster, and can play a specialist role when he is dressed for a game. He will more than likely sit to start the season in favour of Chisholm’s puck moving abilities, but no doubt he will get some playing time as the season progresses.

Keys to Success

To have a successful season, the Wild will need several factors to come together. First and foremost is their defensive stability. The return of Spurgeon, who played only 16 games last season, is critical. Spurgeon’s leadership and two-way ability give the Wild an anchor on defense, something they sorely missed for much of last year.

The continued development of Rossi and Faber will be crucial. Rossi, after battling ailments early in his career, is expected to take a larger role this season, possibly even centering the first line. Faber, meanwhile, has shown he is a defensive star and is expected to solidify his spot in the top pair on defense. If both players can handle increased responsibilities, the Wild’s depth will be a major advantage.

Kaprizov remains the heartbeat of the offense. One of the most dynamic wingers in the NHL, Kaprizov can take over games with his skill and creativity. His ability to score and create plays is what sets Minnesota apart from other playoff bubble teams. Meanwhile, in net, the tandem of Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury can provide consistency, with Gustavsson emerging as a reliable starter and Fleury bringing experience and mentorship.

Finally, an improved penalty kill is essential. Last season, the Wild ranked 30th in the league with a dismal 74.5% success rate. If Hynes can implement a better structure and the team stays disciplined, a stronger penalty kill could make the difference in several close games.

Potential Downfall

While the Wild have the potential to sneak into the playoffs, several factors could derail their season. Injuries, particularly to key players like Kaprizov or Spurgeon, could cripple their chances. Minnesota lacks the high-end depth that some other teams possess, and losing any of their top performers could create significant holes.

The team’s offense beyond Kaprizov is also a concern. The Wild lack consistent secondary scoring, and while Rossi is expected to improve, he is still largely unproven at the NHL level. If Rossi and players like Boldy, Eriksson Ek, and Zuccarello don’t produce offensively, the Wild could struggle to score enough to compete in a tightly contested Central Division.

The penalty kill remains a glaring weakness. Even with improvements to their system, if Minnesota doesn’t address this problem, it could be the team’s achilles heel again this season. Special teams play is often the deciding factor in close games, and if the penalty kill remains in the bottom of the league, it could cost them vital points down the stretch.

Goaltending is also somewhat of a concern. This year will be the last of Fleury’s career and while he may be motivated to end his NHL journey on a positive note, he will still be a year older than he was last season. Gustavsson also will need to improve his numbers from last season. If he performs at the same level, then the Wild will be in trouble when it comes to having a bonafide starter they can rely on consistently.

Future Outlook

Looking beyond this season, the Wild have a bright future anchored by elite prospects like Danila Yurov, Zeev Buium, and Jesper Wallstedt. Yurov, a highly skilled winger with game-breaking offensive talent, is expected to make the jump to the NHL in the next season or two. His ability to score and create plays will be crucial as the team navigates ongoing salary cap challenges. Similarly, Buium, a smooth-skating defenseman with top pair potential, is projected to make a significant impact on the blue line. Both players can contribute on affordable entry-level deals, which will be vital given the team’s financial constraints.

Jesper Wallstedt, one of the top goaltending prospects in hockey, looks set to become the franchise’s starting goalie in the near future. With Fleury set to retire after this season, Wallstedt is poised to take over as the team’s No. 1 goaltender, providing Minnesota with elite goaltending stability for years to come.

While Yurov, Buium, and Wallstedt are the key prospects, the Wild’s depth is also promising. Players like Riley Heidt, Liam Öhgren, and Charlie Stramel offer further depth and versatility, while defenseman Jack Peart and Finnish blueliner Aron Kiviharju add potential reinforcements on the back end. This emerging talent gives the Wild flexibility as they transition into a new competitive window, ensuring a strong balance of veteran presence and youthful impact, all while managing the salary cap in their favour.

Final Thoughts

The Minnesota Wild are a team on the cusp, with the potential to surprise but also the risk of disappointment. A strong defensive system, elite talent in Kaprizov, and emerging young stars give the Wild the tools to make the playoffs. However, they must address their special teams’ shortcomings, especially on the penalty kill, to truly compete.

If head coach John Hynes can continue to implement his system effectively, and if players like Rossi, Boldy, and Faber take the next step in their development, the Wild could be a team that no one wants to face come playoff time. While they may only be projected to finish 16th in the league, don’t be surprised if Minnesota exceeds expectations and makes noise in the postseason.