Season Preview – 14. Winnipeg Jets

The Winnipeg Jets enter the 2024-25 NHL season projecting to finish 14th in the league and securing a playoff spot, despite a few challenges ahead. With a new head coach, Scott Arniel, promoted after serving as an assistant for two seasons, the Jets hope a fresh approach can unlock their potential. While they lost some defensive depth over the summer, they still boast one of the league’s premier goaltenders in Connor Hellebuyck and rely on a scoring-by-committee approach led by stars Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele. The team will need young players like Cole Perfetti, Gabe Vilardi, and Ville Heinola, to take big steps in their development. The Jets may not have the deepest roster, but they remain competitive enough to contend for a playoff spot.

Season Expectations

The Jets have their sights set on securing a playoff spot and aiming for a top-16 finish in the standings. After another year of playoff disappointment, Winnipeg is looking to make a deeper run, and with the promotion of Scott Arniel as head coach, there is hope that this season will bring some changes in structure and motivation. Arniel has been with the team for two years as an assistant coach and understands the roster intimately, which could give him an edge in implementing a more cohesive game plan.

While the team saw some changes in the offseason, they retained their key pieces like Hellebuyck, Connor, Scheifele, and Morrissey. The biggest challenge might be on defense after losing some depth, but the Jets will be counting on young talent like Dylan Samberg and Heinola to step up and play a larger role. On the offensive side, they’ll depend on contributions from emerging players like Cole Perfetti and Gabe Vilardi, whose continued development could be pivotal in determining how far the Jets go this year.

Projected Lines

The Jets are set for a scoring-by-committee approach this season, distributing offensive responsibilities across the top-nine to maintain balance and consistency. Rather than relying on a few stars, the team will depend on contributions from each forward unit, making it harder for opponents to focus on shutting down any specific line. Defensively, the Jets will aim for a structured, team-oriented approach that emphasizes strong positioning and support from the forwards. While their blue line has seen some changes, they remain committed to a system that prioritizes stability in their own zone. This combination of balanced offensive production and disciplined defense gives the Jets the foundation they need as they transition into a more defined identity under head coach Scott Arniel.

To clarify, these line projections are meant to only predict the start of the season. With so many potential combinations possible, its almost certain that there are tweaks and additions of new faces by the end of the year. Expect the season to start as such:

Kyle Connor – Mark Scheifele – Gabe Vilardi
Nikolaj Ehlers – Cole Perfetti – Vladislav Namestnikov
Nino Niederreiter – Adam Lowry – Mason Appleton
Alex Iafallo – David Gustafsson – Morgan Barron

Josh Morrissey – Dylan DeMelo
Dylan Samberg – Neil Pionk
Logan Stanley – Colin Miller

Connor Hellebuyck
Kaapo Kahkonen

Scratches: Rasmus Kupari, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Ville Heinola

Line 1
This line has the opportunity to be the driving force behind the projected success for the Jets this year. However, last year they only played a limited 20 games together for a total of 195.9 minutes and while they seemed to find some chemistry together, their underlying numbers were atrocious. They combined for an abysmal 35.3% xGoals % and a net -1.72 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which was one of the worst lines in hockey last year with over 150 minutes of playing time. Yet, with a new coaching system set to take place, and a hopefully full season with Vilardi in the lineup, they have a chance to take a massive step and prove last season was a fluke. Connor has been one of the most consistent goal scoring wingers in the last seven seasons, adding 241 goals in 511 games. He should continue at his pace, using his speed and elite shot to break games open for the Jets. Scheifele is a premier playmaking center who has found a solid two-way presence the last few seasons. If he is able to continue his growth at a late age, he can truly find another gear and lead this team down the middle. Vilardi biggest challenge this season will be to remain healthy. He can ride shotgun with this top line and as long as he drives the net and uses his large frame on a cycle, he should no doubt have success in a prolonged top line role.

Line 2
This line has some experience together and brings a dynamic type of play that head coach Arniel will use as a weapon. Last season they played 34 games with 194.7 minutes together and proved to be somewhat effective. In total they produced a 52.2% xGoals % with a net 0.19 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which can be improved upon but is not horrible considering Perfetti’s limited development in the middle at the NHL level. With Perfetti now signed after a full offseason hold out, he will look to center this second line and take a big step in his development into a reliable point producer. Namestnikov is every coaches dream player. He has the ability to be effective on both ends of the ice, mixed with his speed and high IQ, he is a difference maker that can play anywhere in the lineup or special teams. Ehlers is entering the final year of his contract in Winnipeg before becoming an unrestricted free agent. There will be a lot of noise surrounding his future, and Jets management will need to make a decision sooner or later on his future within the franchise.

Line 3
This could be the best third line in the entire league. They were the most utilized line last season for the Jets, playing together for 72 games for a total of 682 minutes. They were able to generate an impressive 58.8% xGoals % with a 0.89 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which can be considered outstanding for any third line. Led by captain Lowry who is an extremely rangy big framed centerman who has established a complete commitment to a strong two-way style, and understands how to use his body to win battles. Niederreiter is just like Namestnikov and is a tool that can be used however the coaching staff needs. His speed, underrated shot, and ability to create rushes, is a significant factor to not only this lines success, but the entire teams. Appleton registered a career high in points and goals last season, and will look to add to his totals this year while building off the momentum this line has already shown.

Line 4
This line did not see any ice time together last season, but on paper they matchup perfectly under the new coaching system. While we cannot use an evidence for their success rate, we can attribute their potential chemistry simply by understanding how well each individual player understands commitment to defense. Iafallo has to skill set to move up and down the lineup when changes are necessary and he could be the fastest player that is currently on the Jets roster. He also has the ability to score and produce on a powerplay unit, or even be a specialist for the penalty kill. Gustafsson is a big body forward, who knows how to use it without putting himself in a bad position. He is more than capable of anchoring the fourth line center role, and will likely see an increase in playing time if the coaching staff starts to trust him more. Barron is a solid forechecker who brings another element of speed to an already fast lineup. The last two seasons have seen him establish himself as a bottom-six NHL player, and will look to post more than his career high of 21 points.

Pair 1
The most consistent pairing over the last few seasons for Winnipeg has been this one. Last year, they played together for 80 games for a total of 1207.4 minutes, which was ranked 2nd highest in the entire league. They also put up an efficient 52.5% xGoals % along with a net 0.27 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which is solid considering the amount of minutes they logged together. Morrissey is an elite defender and leads this defensive core by miles in terms of skill and overall contributions. He will need to stay healthy for the Jets to make an impact this season, any games missed could result in a significant lapse in defensive structure. DeMelo earned himself a four-year, $19.6 million contract this offseason, and while he may not slot as a top pair defender on most teams, he has definitely found chemistry with Morrissey. While this pair might not be the flashiest, they will be a difference maker in how the Jets season pans out.

Pair 2
With the loss of Brandon Dillon in free agency, the Jets will have to rely on Samberg to step up into a top-four role full time, and he is more than capable of doing so. Last season this pair was together for 54 games and a total of 151.2 minutes, which at least helped them establish some chemistry for the upcoming campaign. They were able to post a healthy 58.9% xGoals % along with a net 0.67 xGoals For Per 60 Minutes, which will hopeful translate to full time this season. Samberg is a big rangy defenseman standing at 6’4″ 216lbs, and while he is already 25 years old, he only has 156 games of NHL experience. He was able to produce a career high of 18 points in 78 games, along with an impressive +16 plus/minus. Pionk brings a fresh two-way type of abilities that will compliment Samberg style. He also can be relied on the chew heavy minutes regardless of the situation, and is the second best defenseman on the Jets roster. Both will need to step up this year and find a rhythm in order for the Jets to be above the cut line for the post-season.

Pair 3
The Jets found a reliable third pair staple last season, as they brought in Colin Miller at the trade deadline. Now he will be relied on to carry the load on the last pairing, as his partners will likely rotate in and out once injury status’ become more clear. Stanley is a mammoth defender standing 6’7″ 231lbs, and his injury status’ will likely see him start the season, yet a depth defender like Hayden Fleury might be in the lines opening night. While there is uncertainty surrounding the start of the season for this pairing, rest assured that the Jets have enough depth pieces to create a stable pairing while Stanley and Heinola heal up.

Goalies
Last season Hellebuyck was the best goalie in the NHL, winning the 2023-24 Vezina Trophy as proof. However, he did falter in the playoffs, and was a large reason why the Jets were eliminated as quickly as they were. Nevertheless, Hellebuyck was ranked first in the league out of every goaltender with a 33.1 Goals Saved Above Expected, and carried a 2.39 goals above average and a 0.921% save percentage during the regular season. The Jets will need to rely on Hellebuyck again this year, yet as long as they balance out his starts and allow him to be ready for the post-season, they can set up both him and the team for success. Kahkonen is an ideal backup that can play up to 35 games in order to stay effective, helping Hellebuyck with his workload while still giving the team a chance to win. Do not expect him to take over any significant role barring an injury to Hellebuyck, but management made a wise decision bringing him in this offseason.

Scratches
The Jets have a handful of depth players that will find subbed in roles as the season progresses. Kupari is capable of being a defensive minded bottom-six player, and will likely get more games is Gustafsson fails to maintain his role as the fourth line center. Anderson-Dolan brings speed and a forechecking ability that can be utilized with the right matchups, but he will likely be an odd man out throughout the season. Heinola will probably play over Stanley once he returns to full health. He has the ability to even play higher in the lineup due to his savvy skating and puck moving abilities. Though he has yet to establish himself as a full-time NHL player due to both inconsistencies and injuries that last few seasons.

Keys to Success

The biggest X-factor for Winnipeg remains Connor Hellebuyck. He has consistently been among the best goaltenders in the NHL, and when he is on his game, he can single-handedly steal victories for the Jets. If Hellebuyck plays at a Vezina Trophy level, it will allow Winnipeg to survive nights when the offense or defense falters, keeping them in the playoff picture.

In addition, Winnipeg will need their top stars like Connor, Scheifele, and Nikolaj Ehlers, to produce at an elite level. These three forwards are the cornerstones of the Jets offense, and a significant portion of their success depends on their ability to score consistently. Beyond them, the Jets will look for players like Cole Perfetti and Gabe Vilardi to take the next step in their careers. Perfetti, in particular, is expected to be a key piece as he slots into a top-six role, while Vilardi needs to prove his offensive ceiling and stay healthy this season.

The third line of Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton could quietly become one of the best shutdown lines in the league. This trio not only has the potential to neutralize top opponents but also to contribute timely goals. If they can maintain their physicality and defensive play while adding a bit of scoring depth, it will make the Jets a much tougher team to play against.

Potential Downfall

While the Jets have solid high-end talent, their forward depth beyond the top lines is a concern. If the likes of Perfetti and Vilardi struggle to meet expectations, Winnipeg could find itself relying too much on Connor, Scheifele, and Ehlers for offense. The team’s scoring by committee approach, while balanced, lacks the firepower that elite contenders have across multiple lines.

The Jets defense could also be an area of weakness. The loss of veteran defensive depth could put pressure on younger players like Dylan Samberg and Ville Heinola to perform at a higher level. If they aren’t able to adjust quickly, Winnipeg’s blue line could struggle, especially in a highly competitive Central Division. Moreover, injuries to key players like Josh Morrissey could expose the team’s lack of depth overall, making it harder for them to prevent goals or score them.

Future Outlook

The Jets are set up well for the future, with a strong core of young prospects waiting in the wings. The organization has done an excellent job of replenishing its prospect pipeline in recent years, which should ensure a smooth transition as their current stars age. Forward prospects like Brayden Yager, Colby Barlow, Chaz Lucius, and Brad Lambert are among the most promising, offering the potential to bolster the Jets forward depth starting as soon as next year. Yager and Barlow, in particular, are seen as future top-six players who could become key offensive contributors for Winnipeg as they develop.

On the wings, the Jets have Nikita Chibrikov and Dmitri Rashevsky, two talented wingers with offensive flair who could provide valuable scoring depth in the near future. These players give the Jets a chance to keep their scoring-by-committee approach strong, even as the roster evolves.

Defensively, the pipeline is also rich with talent. Elias Salomonsson and Dmitry Kuzmin are poised to become important pieces on the blue line, while Swedish defenseman Alfons Freij adds another layer of depth. If these prospects can reach their potential, Winnipeg’s defense should remain stable in the years to come, even if some of their veteran defensemen start to decline.

Goaltending is another area where Winnipeg looks well-prepared for the future. Domenic DiVincentiis is a standout prospect between the pipes, with the potential to become a reliable 1B down the road. As Connor Hellebuyck continues to be the franchise goaltender of the team, DiVincentiis can develop at his own pace and eventually take over the role when needed.

Final Thoughts

The Winnipeg Jets head into the season with plenty of uncertainty but also a significant amount of promise. With a talented roster, an elite goaltender, and a new head coach looking to make his mark, they have the tools to make the playoffs and potentially surprise some teams. However, depth issues on both offense and defense could pose significant challenges, especially if key players struggle or get injured. The Jets season will likely come down to how well their young talent steps up and whether they can keep their core players healthy and productive throughout the year.

If everything comes together, Winnipeg has the potential to not only secure a playoff spot but also make some noise once they get there. However, if the depth issues become too much to overcome, they could find themselves falling short of expectations in what looks to be a competitive season across the Central Division.